Iraq is a winnable war.

“Victory” won’t come in the form of the ideal democratic state described at the start of the star-crossed enterprise. But that doesn’t mean that military and strategic victory isn’t possible.

Such a circumstance would look like:

* Al Qaeda ejected from the country – with Iraqis working to keep the insurgents out permanently.

* A waning Iranian influence.

* Sunni-Shia sectarian conflict at a tolerable level.

Weeks ago, such an outcome might have seemed a pipe dream.

But hopeful signs from Iraq abound – stemming from the much-maligned “surge” strategy being pursued so effectively by Gen. David Petraeus.

Since the surge began in February, Iraq has seen:

* The pacification of Anbar province, which had been an al Qaeda stronghold.

* A similar result in adjacent Diyala province.

* The alliance in Salahadin Province of 25 Sunni and Shia tribes around the city of Taji – 12 miles north of Baghdad – to combat members of both al Qaeda in Iraq and Moqtada al-Sadr’s Mahdi Army.

* Lasting friendly relations between locals and Coalition forces, with more and more Iraqis willing to assist U.S. troops in identifying hostile agents.

In another positive development, terrorist-inflicted Iraqi civilian casualties – though remaining intolerably high – are down by one-third.

July also saw the lowest monthly U.S. casualty toll of the year.

This could change, of course.

The forces of chaos could stage a Tet-style uprising come September – possibly tied to Petraeus’ appearance before Congress.

But, clearly, Petraeus has a handle on events – and the thousands of young Americans deployed to the combat zones are doing a terrific job, too.

Why not victory?

Why not, indeed.