Americans of all groups  –– young and old, rich and middle-class, the college-educated and not  –– are fleeing California.  

Conservatives are leaving in droves.  

The state will become even more progressive and even more committed to the self-destructive policies that are driving people out in the first place.  

But this exodus might have a saving grace: It might make surrounding states more conservative, right?

Well, this has yet to play out favorably for Republicans in some nearby states, including, for example, Arizona.

California is clearly suffering a demographic catastrophe. 

For the first time in American history, the Golden State’s population did not grow during the last census.  

From 2010 to 2024, 10 million people left California, as if the population of Michigan –– the 10th largest state –– had moved out.  

And conservatives are leading the way out the door.  

According to a recent study, between 2020 and 2024, about five times as many Republicans have left the state as have moved in. 

And these numbers may even get worse. 

One negative effect of this outflow has been to reinforce the Democratic Party’s dominance of state politics. 

With a stranglehold on all statewide offices, and no meaningful opposition party, Democrats will go off the rails in its pursuit of progressive utopia.   

The only constraint on senseless regulations and higher taxes will be the imaginations of Democratic Party hacks and Marxist intellectuals.  

While the proposed wealth tax will only hit billionaires at first, unrestricted progressive spending will impose ever-greater demands for more tax receipts.  

The wealth tax will be sure to grow until it hits the middle class –– if any of them are left.

Over the past decade, next-door Arizona has seen an influx of residents from California, with an average of about 173 Californians relocating daily, or more than 630,000 people from 2015 to 2025.  

Arizona is especially attractive because of cheaper housing (median home prices are often 30-50% lower), lower state income tax rates (Arizona’s top rate is 4.5% vs. California’s 13.3%), reduced traffic congestion, and dissatisfaction with California’s progressive handling of issues like homelessness and crime. 

Migration from California has supported Arizona’s economic growth while intensifying debates over issues such as urban sprawl, water usage and increased demand on housing and infrastructure. 

But the complaint most often heard from longtime Arizona residents is “Don’t California my Arizona.”  

Arizona was long a reliably Republican state, with strong conservative leanings rooted in its libertarian ethos, rural demographics, and historical figures like Barry Goldwater. 

However, demographic shifts, including the California migration, appear to be transforming it into a purple swing state. 

In 2020, Joe Biden won Arizona by about 10,000 votes, marking the first Democratic presidential victory there since 1996. 

By 2024, Donald Trump reclaimed the state, but the intervening years saw extraordinary Democratic gains in statewide offices. 

Although many Republicans are quick to blame the California influx for its electoral losses, the reality is more nuanced. 

For instance, Californians moving to Arizona since 2020 have shown a 20-point Republican registration edge, an edge that undoubtedly contributed to Trump’s 2024 win. 

However, it is often the case that even conservative-leaning California migrants will bring with them more progressive views on issues like environmental or social policy. 

Migration out of California into Arizona has both solidified California’s progressive politics and amplified Arizona’s political volatility –– with independents often deciding close races on issues like immigration, abortion rights, and election integrity. 

In 2022, many independents and moderate Republicans rejected GOP candidates who were painted by statewide media as extreme, while Democrats were able to mobilize voters on issues like abortion access. 

Moreover, the 2022 election was one of the most expensive in Arizona history, as the purple character of Arizona politics drew national attention and 83% of campaign contributions for state and federal races came from non-resident donors.

Today, however, Democrats in statewide office are seeing their popularity plummet: Gov. Katie Hobbs’ poor approval ratings, for example, reflect voter concerns over poor fiscal management and opposition to immigration enforcement. 

The progressive policies entrenched in California –– such as exorbitant income taxes, unchecked urban decay, and permissive approaches to crime and homelessness –– have fueled a mass exodus to Arizona, where residents seek relief from onerous mandates.

However, despite the advantage to Republican voter registration from migration, the practical effect has been mixed, with close races electing Democrats to powerful statewide offices. 

Over the next few election cycles, the nation will learn just how much this shift will “California” not just Arizona, but also other red-purple states across the country.

John Yoo is a senior research fellow at the University of Texas at Austin, a professor of law at the University of California at Berkeley and a nonresident senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.

Linda Denno is the associate dean of Academic Affairs & Administration at the University of Arizona College of Applied Science and Technology.