The critics and admirers of America’s 47th president disagree on everything and agree on nothing. Some treat his words as gospel; others dismiss them out of hand. But no one can say he hasn’t tried to deliver on campaign promises. 

Donald Trump vowed to end Russia’s war in Ukraine — and if there’s one line he’s repeated again and again, it’s this: “Too many people are dying — thousands each week — in a terrible and senseless war.”

Moscow’s war of choice is truly terrible, but to call it “senseless” is to miss the point. Russia has been killing Ukrainians for the crime of being Ukrainian since 2014 — predictably, methodically, relentlessly. Russia’s war is also criminal, under the very rules of warfare America helped enshrine in 1945.

Is it senseless for Ukraine to fight back? A war for survival is immensely costly — but to shield your children from Russian missiles is not a choice; it’s a duty. Kyiv has no real options but to resist: Because failure to defend your home is dishonor, followed by annihilation.

After months of frantic diplomacy, it’s finally clear where everyone stands. The White House wants a cease-fire. Ukraine wants peace. Russia wants neither. How do we know?

Back in March, Trump dispatched Secretary of State Marco Rubio to demand that Kyiv prove it was serious about ending the war. Within 24 hours, Ukraine not only agreed to halt hostilities in the air and at sea — it offered an unconditional 30-day cease-fire.

Russia rejected Washington’s peacemaking efforts, stonewalled and openly mocked America. Putin mouthed lies about ending the fighting, while unleashing ever more rockets on Ukrainian cities. On Palm Sunday — just 48 hours after Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff met with him — Russia launched its worst attack since 2023: 84 civilians wounded, including 10 children.

This week, Russia set a new record by launching nine cruise missiles and 355 of the Shahed drones it sources from Iran, in a single night. Over the preceding three nights, it launched around 900 drones — a grim milestone in a war defined by deliberate cruelty and heinous war crimes. While Trump uses words like Putin is “playing with fire,” the Kremlin uses rockets to set suburban neighborhoods ablaze. 

Knowing where we stand inspires little optimism — but it doesn’t determine what comes next. Russia chose to invade. Ukraine found the courage to defend itself. But crushing Russia’s appetite for war will take more than heroism from Kyiv. It will require resolve from America and every nation that stands for freedom. We can and must give peace through strength a chance! 

If we’re serious about protecting US interests, let’s get real about the three ways this war could end.

The most likely outcome — and the one Washington is drifting toward — is a frozen conflict, otherwise known as a ticking time bomb. A cease-fire is declared, the front line hardens into a de facto border and Putin keeps what he stole. Ukraine loses what it bled for. The West congratulates itself for “containing the crisis,” and everyone pretends that’s a win. 

What follows is predictable: Moscow prepares for the next invasion. America’s credibility circles the drain and the world tilts toward un-security, where fear reigns, prosperity falters, Russia-China alliance hardens hardens and the cost of freedom rises.

Then there’s the most dreadful scenario: We let Russia have its way. A third-rate power with first-rate imperial arrogance, economy the size of Texas and collapsing demographics is handed a victory — not because it deserves one, but because we failed to help Ukraine. We’ve seen this movie before. In the 1930s, giving Hitler what he wanted didn’t end the war — it made it bigger. 

The third scenario — called the best case by some — is that we finally step up, arm Ukraine properly to push Russia back. We’ve got the means. What’s missing is backbone. Ukraine regains ground, Crimea stays in legal limbo, and Putin claims victory anyway — because tyrants who control the script never admit defeat.

But even this feel-good outcome would fall far short of justice. If stolen children aren’t returned, if mass graves and beheaded POWs are ignored, if war criminals are drinking champagne in Moscow instead of facing judgment in The Hague — then what exactly will we have won?

What’s not even on the table is the one path history tells us brings lasting peace: The aggressor is defeated, disarmed and held to account.

That means full restoration of Ukraine’s borders, reparations and prison for those who ordered and carried out atrocities. Not to punish the Russian people — but to give them a chance at finally breaking free from a system built on oppression, violence and conquest. 

This version of peace — just, durable and enforced — is the one worth aiming for. And yet, somehow, it’s not even part of the conversation.

Last weekend, Trump said Putin “has gone absolutely CRAZY!” But madness isn’t the problem — impunity is. Russia’s war makes perfect sense to Putin, that’s why he is waging it.

The real insanity is pretending that angry words or half-measures will stop him.

Andrew Chakhoyan is an academic directorat the University of Amsterdam and previously served in the US government at the Millennium Challenge Corporation.