When a supposed global superpower like Russia begs Iran for drones, turns to North Korea for artillery shells and watches its Black Sea fleet dismantled by a country without a navy, you know something is off. Before 2022, Russia’s military boasted of being second only to the United States.

Now — as the bitter joke goes — it’s the second strongest in Ukraine.

Donald Trump wants to negotiate an end to the Russo-Ukrainian war. But for a cease-fire not to boomerang back as an even bigger calamity, Moscow must come to terms with a hard truth — ending its criminal war of conquest isn’t a concession but an inevitability that’ll serve Russia’s own best interest. 

Trump calling President Vladimir Putin out is both timely and necessary.

He is right: Russia’s economy is “failing” and “IT’S ONLY GOING TO GET WORSE.”

He just announced a maximum pressure campaign to rein in Iran and should apply the same muscular policy to check Moscow’s revanchism.

The Kremlin once projected its ambitions to recolonize Ukraine with confidence — not anymore. The Russian colossus is revealing its legs of clay. The economy is no longer tightening its belt or entering wartime overdrive; instead, it resembles a loudly ticking time bomb.

Inflation soared to 9.5% last year, nearly triple the US rate, driven by reckless military spending. But these figures should be taken with pounds of salt.

In 2024 alone, staples like potatoes and onions saw price spikes of 91% and 47% respectively.

The Central Bank’s desperate response — hiking interest rates to 21% — speaks volumes about the state of the economy. Since mid-2024, the ruble has plunged by over 20%, now literally worth just a penny.

The Kremlin’s National Wealth Fund has shrunk to $31 billion, down from $210 billion in June 2022 — a staggering decline. Fittingly for a state the late John McCain once called “a gas station masquerading as a country,” Russia relies on crude oil sales to fund its treasury.

Here too, the latest US sanctions crackdown on Moscow’s shadow fleet sent shipping costs skyrocketing and willing buyers dwindling.

New research found that Moscow’s military-industrial complex has been sustained by a dual-track financing strategy. Basically, smoke and mirrors.

The experts were well aware of the official defense budget figures: $315 billion over the last three years. But they missed another state-mandated scheme quietly funneling $210-250 billion into loss-making weapons factories.

This forced lending now represents a critical vulnerability and might trigger a surge of bankruptcies.

All is not well at the front lines either.

In just the past seven months, Russian military casualties have soared to nearly 300,000 killed or wounded — almost matching the previous two years combined. Unsurprisingly, Moscow is struggling to maintain its force levels.

Estimated recruitment rates of 500-600 troops per day meet only half the needed replacements. Meanwhile, Russia’s “meatgrinder” assault tactics have pushed average daily casualties to a stunning 1,570 as of December 2024 — all for minimal territorial gains.

The Kremlin now offers unprecedented loan forgiveness up to 10 million rubles ($94,500) as incentives to recruits: desperately trying to avoid another unpopular mobilization that could trigger mass emigration and domestic unrest.

Are we likely to witness an imminent collapse of the Russian economy or its war-making capabilities? No, but I can say with confidence that what Russia needs now is a defeat. Germany’s and Japan’s became their salvation.

So it could be with Russia. God knows it needs not more territory but a moment of reckoning.

It’s time to demonstrate that the Free World stands ready to defend itself, unafraid of winning.

The Kremlin likes to hint at — or outright threaten — the use of doomsday weaponry. But if we yield to such blackmail, Moscow will see it as a sign of weakness, making future nuclear confrontations almost inevitable.

History teaches us that peace is secured not by retreat, but by resolve. Deterrence is capability plus credibility. If America loses the latter, the former won’t matter.

An under-appreciated reality is that we once feared what Moscow might do when it loses — but now Putin gave us a clue.

After Russia’s humiliating retreat from Syria, where it had backed the Assads since the 1970s, the Russian president simply declared alignment with international law and respect for sovereignty. The control Kremlin has over the information space is total and complete.

When Russian troops leave Ukraine, Moscow will similarly spin it as a win. 

World War II was the last war of aggression fueled by imperial delusions — and enabled by appeasement — to spiral into global catastrophe.

Let’s not repeat that mistake.

While Putin puffs his chest, Russia’s economy falters, its military stretches thinner by the day and its global influence wanes.

Ronald Reagan once stood before the Berlin Wall and called on Gorbachev to tear it down.

Today, we must call on Putin to stop the aggression and withdraw from Ukraine. It’s time to give peace through strength a chance, and remind the belligerent that invading neighbors leads nowhere good.

Andrew Chakhoyan is an academic director at the University of Amsterdam and previously served in the US Government at the Millennium Challenge Corporation.