KYIV, UKRAINE — As Russia continues to build up forces along several sides of the Ukrainian border, diplomacy among Europe, America and Moscow to conclude the crisis seems to have reached an impasse. But Ukraine is already seeing further suffering — partly thanks to its American ally, no less. The Biden administration’s alarmism is actually aiding the Russian strategy of cutting off Kyiv from the West.
Russia has assembled a force of at least 130,000 troops and threatens to escalate the eight-year conflict. The Russian army units stationed within Belarus are in the midst of maneuvers and war games, and Russian warships have been positioned off the Ukrainian coasts.
Ukraine is as close to a return to full-scale war as it has been since the February 2015 signing of the Minsk II accords.
The diplomatic crisis has been building for months as Russian President Vladimir Putin has acted to see how much pressure Kyiv and the West are capable of withstanding. The situation now threatens to turn into a full-on military crisis as Moscow attempts to push Kyiv into implementing the unpalatable and unpopular Minsk II.
Russia has stationed at least 130,000 troops along the Ukrainian border. Vadim Savitsky/TASS/Sipa USAPutin is openly frustrated and sees the Ukrainians as further away from Kremlin domination than ever before. He’s also demanded hard guarantees that Kyiv will never join NATO. While the situation is stable, it is also deteriorating and becoming ever more tense as the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe observers just pulled out of eastern Ukraine.
The Biden administration, meanwhile, is very much afraid of being seen as being bad at foreign policy and repeating its catastrophic failure with the Afghanistan pullout last year. Washington has sounded the alarm and evacuated its embassy, sending its diplomats to the country’s western border. Numerous Western nations, including Israel, Canada and the United Kingdom, have followed the American lead and are pulling their diplomatic staff and resident citizens from the Ukrainian capital.
The Biden administration has stated that it has intelligence that Putin has made the decision to invade. Washington is calling Moscow’s bluff.
The Ukrainians, though, have forthrightly pushed back against the White House’s public statements of an “imminent” Russian invasion, which threaten to create economic panic and a run on their currency.
The situation is very serious, of course, but Ukrainians say it’s not much different than what it’s been since last summer. And the rhetoric coming out of Washington — however, welcome the concern — has had some rather adverse effects.
Putin has demanded that NATO not be expanded to include Ukraine. Kommersant Photo Agency/ShuttersSeveral airlines have already announced that they will no longer fly into Ukraine as insurance companies no longer want the risk of having another commercial plane being shot down over Ukrainian skies. On Sunday, Kyiv announced it’s creating a fund to underwrite flights — to the tune of $600 million.
In effect, the Ukrainians are being unfairly cut off from air traffic and de facto blockaded from the air by their Western allies as the Kremlin threatens to do the same from the sea. It’s a bizarre adjunct to Moscow’s strategy of economic strangulation that’s been putting more and more pressure on the Ukrainian economy. Numerous Ukrainian politicians have told me that they somewhat see the heated rhetoric as part of a well-intentioned but significantly counterproductive White House strategy to scare both sides into making a deal.
Much of the situation is of the Biden administration’s own making. It’s made a mess of its dealings with Russia. Putin certainly began behaving more aggressively on the Ukraine-Belarus border and amassing troops all along the Ukrainian border after Team Biden neglected to take Kyiv’s side and issue sanctions over the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.
Ukrainians took to the streets in Kyiv in a unity march to demonstrate their patriotic spirit amid growing tensions with Russia. Aleksandr Gusev/SOPA Images/ShutWhile Washington’s concerted response is in many ways the right one, creating strong European cohesion in response to the threat, the strident tone has also generated an unnecessary — and very un-Ukrainian — sense of panic.
Western solidarity is surely needed to prevent Moscow from starting a full-blown war. So are more weapons for Ukraine and economically crippling sanctions against Moscow in the event of a serious Russian incursion. The Biden administration deserves credit for having done a great deal to create deterrence in support of our Ukrainian allies. But it also needs to strike a proper balance between vigilance and alarmism. Putin doesn’t need America’s help in putting more pressure on its long-suffering neighbor.
Vladislav Davidzon is a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council and the author of “From Odessa With Love.”







