Manhattan retail isn’t on its deathbed — at least not yet.
But despite cheerful claims by some landlords and brokers of a “healthy” market, a stroll through town might think its condition lies somewhere between a bad winter cold and pneumonia.
The bleak perception goes beyond the gloomy scenarios in the Real Estate Board of New York’s most recent retail reports, which found (in November) that average asking rents fell in 11 of 17 major corridors and (last summer) that vacancy rates were as high as 31 percent on parts of Fifth Avenue and 20 percent in Soho.
Developer Harry Gross stands by his Marriott hotel at 1717 Broadway, right before its December 2013 opening. Much of the retail space there is still vacant.Anne Wermiel/NY Post“There’s an overall malaise over the entire retail market,” says Colliers’ dealmaking legend Bradley Mendelson.
On Broadway from 49th to 58th streets, a mere handful of actual stores and restaurants can be found amid banks, pharmacies, glorified fast-food outlets — and vacancies.
Empty storefronts, many on prime corners, blemish upper Madison Avenue, 57th Street river to river, Columbus Avenue, Bleecker and West 4th streets in Greenwich Village, western Canal Street, and Wall and Broad streets in FiDi.
Numerous prime locations in Midtown’s heart have stood dark for years, despite landlords’ determined attempts to fill them.
“There are many vacant footprints in Midtown,” says Douglas Elliman’s Faith Hope Consolo.
Among them: Allied Partners’ 770 Lexington Ave., across from Bloomingdale’s; Charles S. Cohen’s 465 Park Ave. at East 57th Street; and the highly visible second floor at Harry Gross’s 1717 Broadway.
The situation has spawned apocalyptic forecasts. Forbes.com recently speculated that the planned new Neiman Marcus and Nordstrom department stores could face disaster. “New York does not need the new stores,” contributor Walter Loeb writes.
Impressions can be misleading, though — at least up to a point.
“Lots of people call this a crisis, but it doesn’t feel that way,” says Jordan Claffey, the EVP for retail at Aby Rosen’s RFR Realty, which has significant store space at many buildings it owns.
“I take offense when people say the market sucks in every sector,” observes JLL retail vice-chairman Patrick A. Smith.
For one thing, several million square feet have been leased to first-class stores at Westfield World Trade Center and Brookfield Place, as well as at rising Hudson Yards and Manhattan West. None existed previously (Brookfield Place can’t be compared with its smaller, poorly designed predecessor at what was then called the World Financial Center).
But the extent to which tenancies at the new complexes offset gaps elsewhere is unclear, because overall retail inventory and availability are poorly tabulated in comparison with office and residential data.
Faith Hope Consolo.Patrick McMullan/PatrickMcMullan.comIs it even possible that, despite the appearance of a glut, Manhattan might actually have more rented retail space than it did 10 years ago? “It’s absolutely possible!” says Smith. How? The new malls, for one thing. Plus, innumerable fine shops now brighten districts that once had no serious retail at all — from Nolita to Lenox Avenue in Harlem. And who would ever have expected the sexy boutiques that now line once-desolate Howard Street on Chinatown’s fringe?
Consolo acknowledges this flip side, noting, “I have enormous activity in Chinatown, the Lower East Side and Nolita. Much of it’s coming from restaurants, despite what everyone says about that market.”
There are also success stories that brokers rarely bring up — in neighborhoods with so little availability, there’s no deal-making to be done. We rarely hear about Sixth Avenue, although it’s probably the healthiest major Manhattan boulevard, with precious few vacancies from Franklin Street to Central Park South.
Yet, shouldn’t the wealthy consumer paradise of Manhattan be fully stored everywhere? Of course, the retail industry is reeling from loss of revenue to online shopping. Even mighty Macy’s is closing stores and laying off workers.
“Although brick-and-mortar isn’t dead yet, you need fewer stores to achieve the same sales volume,” notes Consolo.
Some doomsayers argue the city doesn’t need new stores, like the Neiman Marcus planned for Hudson Yards.Courtesy Related-OxfordMendelson, like other brokers, cites all-too-familiar “astronomical” rent hikes. “Sidewalk-level Times Square locations are up to $2,500 a square foot versus $400 a foot just 15 years ago,” he says. On Fifth Avenue, “where we could hardly get $2,000 a foot, it’s now $4,000 to 4,500.”
And, “should Tribeca [a neighborhood with limited sidewalk traffic despite its mystique] be $300 a square foot?” Mendelson muses, although he expresses confidence about longer-term equilibrium.
He also cites an over-supply of secondary sites being marketed as flagship venues. Even at heavily trafficked locations worthy of “flagship” designation, “the pool of tenants interested in ‘flagship’ sites is very, very shallow,” Mendelson says.
Weak demand is also widely blamed on absurdly high rents demanded by buyers of retail condos who overpaid for the space and must now satisfy their investors. Other spaces stand vacant because the landlords are keeping them off the market in preparation for new development — which might be the biggest drain of all on the market.
Landlords keep adding more, pricey spaces, all over town, even though supply already exceeds demand. New hotels and residential and office towers churn out storefronts like sausages at addresses where only low-end retail, if any, previously existed.
This can occur even without a new building. Fosun International is pushing 50,000 square feet of previously unused space at the base of 28 Liberty St., formerly One Chase Manhattan Plaza. Five glass-box retail units sprang up recently in front of the New York Hilton on Sixth Avenue. No tenants have yet been announced at either site.
While certain landlords cling to unrealistic rent dreams, more savvy ones aim to bring in tenants that complement the property. RFR’s Claffey says, “In almost all cases, our retail is an amenity to whatever’s happening above.” He cites 285 Madison Ave. at East 40th Street, where the tenant roster is “predominantly fast-casual food concepts including Dr. Smood,” opening its first Manhattan outpost, and Eatsa, where customers order salads on an iPad and fetch them from Automat-like doors.
Fast-casual food is probably retail’s only true growth area. At 1407 Broadway, JLL’s Smith says his firm helped lease eight storefronts to modern grab-and-gos, including Cambodian sandwich shop Num Pang, Tom Colicchio’s ’Wichcraft and barbecue spot Mighty Quinn’s.
While the appetite seems insatiable for fast food that’s better than McDonald’s, the craving for old-fashioned stores that actually sell things is even stronger. But Manhattan might just have to wait.


