LOUISVILLE – The Breeders’ Cup may be undergoing a shake-up second only to the New York Racing Association, and its TV ratings may be in the cellar, but after 22 years it remains for horseplayers the best betting card of the year.
Tomorrow’s edition is no exception. Eight races, fleshed to the max with the best horses in the country, if not the world, a record $20 million on the line, a slew of championship titles up for grabs, non-stop excitement for five hours, and inflated prices on horses that normally would be odds-on.
Although favorites win at a 36 percent clip (slightly better than average), the average payoff for winners in the past four years is $25!
The trick is finding those long-shot winners. Cross fingers and here goes:
* The first Cup event tomorrow is the Juvenile Fillies, deemed indecipherable by most, but I figure it’s a two-horse race between the favorites, Cash Included and Dreaming of Anna.
Preference goes to Anna, who swamped colts over the mile grass at Woodbine last out, running the last quarter in 23 seconds flat. If she does that tomorrow, she’ll beat this bunch by five.
* The Juvenile is just as competitive. Stormello won the Norfolk around two turns at Santa Anita and has since worked in blacktype. He could be the goods, but if the prices are right, I’ll ride with Nick Zito’s C P West and Wayne Lukas’ Pegasus Wind (who was bred by legendary jockey Steve Cauthen).
* The Filly and Mare Turf brings back Ouija Board, the princess of the breed, who won this race two years ago and finished second last year. She has since raced in Japan, Hong Kong, Dubai, England and Ireland. Now she’s back in the United States.
She’s listed at 8-5 and I hope she wins, but she’s too short to bet and may have lost a step. Wait a While, who has won three straight graded races on the grass in California, is in superb form and may be the one to beat.
But I’ll gamble on Satwa Queen, beaten less than a length last out at Longchamp in the Grade 1 Prix de l’Opera, and rated 12-1 here.
* The Sprint, as always, is a stabber’s dream. I’ll take a flyer on stretch runner Too Much Bling, who has been prepped with five bullet workouts. He has won two graded events at seven furlongs for trainer Bob Baffert, so he’ll be running when others are gasping.
* The Mile is so open that Gorella, the French filly who has won her last three races at Belmont, Arlington and Keeneland, is the morning-line favorite at 4-1.
If it’s that iffy, I’ll certainly wade in on Bobby Frankel’s lone speed, Badge of Silver, even though he has not raced in 10 months and has suffered through numerous leg ailments.
* The Distaff features incomparable Fleet Indian at 8-5. But she was all-out to beat Balletto, who hasn’t won a race in two years, in the Beldame. She may be tailing off. Pine Island may have her measure.
But shopping for a price I’ll go with Hollywood Story, 20-1 out of California, and Spun Sugar from the Todd Pletcher emporium.
* The $3 million Turf at a mile-and-a-half pits Europe’s megastar Hurricane Run against our English Channel and French import Cacique. Hurricane won everything in Europe last year, but he has lost his last three, suggesting a down draft.
The upsetter here might be Scorpion, from the Aidan O’Brien stable. He ran Hurricane Run to a length last year in the Irish Derby. He has had one prep race for this, a solid second in Ireland, which should move him forward.
* The Classic is aptly named this year. It’s Bernardini vs. the world. America’s horse of the hour, for the first time, will face off with the best, older stayers in the land and two sensational grass horses from Europe in a mile-and-a-quarter event with a $5 million prize.
With that kind of money dangling at the wire, don’t expect any jockey to give Bernie a break. They are going to ride to beat him.
Bernardini is a horse to savor, not a horse to bet at even money. If the tote offers 30-1 on Giacomo, the 2005 Derby winner; Premium Tap, the Woodward winner; and Flower Alley, second in this race last year, I’ll take my chances and hope to get lucky.
That’s what the Cup is all about for horseplayers: few sure things but lots of possibilities to hit the jackpot.
At a glance
WHAT: Breeders’ Cup World Championships
WHEN: Saturday, noon
WHERE: Churchill Downs, Louisville, Ky.
WEATHER: Partly cloudy skies, high of 53.
TV: ESPN
