That explosion you hear is a party breaking out in the executive suites of Madison Square Garden. If chalk holds, New York City would get an absolute blockbuster regional final of No. 1 Villanova against No. 2 Duke. Neither has a very difficult road to get to the weekend at the Garden.

Baylor is the worst three-seed in the field, fourth-seeded Florida has dropped three of its past four games, and No. 5 Virginia was over-seeded, an offensively challenged group Villanova already has beaten this season.

Keep an eye on SMU. The American Athletic Conference regular-season and tournament champion has the guard play to challenge the Blue Devils in the Sweet 16 if it gets there.

Another interesting subplot: A Duke reunion in the second round if No. 10 Marquette can upset seventh-seeded South Carolina, with former Duke guard and Marquette coach Steve Wojciechowski facing his mentor, Mike Krzyzewski.

Best Player: Josh Hart, Villanova. The Big East Player of the Year is a National Player of the Year favorite and arguably the most complete player in the country. The senior guard defends, he rebounds, he blocks shots and he scores in a variety of ways — whatever it takes to win.

Unsung Player: Semi Ojeleye, SMU. If the versatile, 6-foot-7 junior played in the ACC or the Big 12, he would be a household name, a powerful forward who shoots the ball at a high level (42 percent from distance) and thrives in the paint.

Best first-round Matchup: No. 7 South Carolina vs. No. 10 Marquette. Contrasting styles make for interesting games, and no two teams play styles more different than these power-conference foes. Marquette is a lights-out shooting team that tries to outscore the opponent. South Carolina will grind it out, squeezing the life out of its opponent.

First-round upset watch: No. 12 UNC-Wilmington over No. 5 Virginia. Virginia can’t score and Wilmington is 10th in the country in points per game (85.2). The CAA champion nearly upset Duke a year ago, and it only has improved since.

Bracket buster: Marquette. When their 3-pointers are falling, the Golden Eagles can beat anyone. They knocked off Villanova during the regular season, and will have the belief they can do the same to Duke in the second round.

By the numbers
55.6: Points Virginia allows per game, fewest in the nation
43.0: Marquette’s top-ranked 3-point shooting percentage

Champion: Villanova. Duke will be the popular pick, but Villanova is the smart choice. The Blue Devils enter the tournament red hot, coming off wins over Louisville, North Carolina and Notre Dame, but the Wildcats have been the more consistent team. The defending national champions are the most experienced, battle-tested team. Both reach the regional final with little trouble, and treat the Garden to a classic. You beat Villanova by defending the perimeter at an elite level, and hammering them inside, qualities Duke doesn’t possess. Josh Hart and Mikal Bridges limit Duke freshman Jayson Tatum, and last year’s national championship game hero Kris Jenkins buries a clinching 3-pointer in the final seconds.

Big East
PPG: 77.7 | OPP: 62.8
The defending national champions won their fourth straight Big East regular-season crown and the conference tournament. They feature arguably the best perimeter attack in the sport, led by Josh Hart.

Sr. G Josh Hart
(18.9 PPG, 6.5 RPG)
So. G Jalen Brunson
(14.8 PPG, 4.2 APG)
Sr. F Kris Jenkins
(13.4 PPG, 4.2 RPG)

Northeast
PPG: 68.3 | OPP: 68.6
The Mountaineers were manhandled in nonconference play, losing 11 of their first 12 games, but they recovered to capture the regular-season and tournament titles, advancing to the NCAA Tournament for the fifth time.

So. G Elijah Long
(15.4 PPG, 4.4 APG)
Jr. G Junior Robinson
(14.1 PPG, 2.9 APG)
Fr. G Miles Wilson
(11.3 PPG, 3.6 RPG)

Southland
PPG: 73.1 | OPP: 69.3
The Privateers are playing in their first NCAA Tournament game since 1996 and haven’t earned a win since 1987. That drought could end thanks to conference player of the year Erik Thomas.

Sr. F Erik Thomas
(19.5 PPG, 7.8 RPG)
Sr. G Christavious Gill
(11.6 PPG, 2.7 APG)
Jr. F Travin Thibodeaux
(8.6 PPG, 7.5 RPG)

Big Ten
PPG: 72.4 | OPP: 61.6
Opened league play 10-1 with wins over Indiana and Nebraska, but dropped five of six entering the postseason. The Badgers righted the sinking ship in the Big Tournament, however, reaching the title game.

Sr. G Bronson Koenig
(14.2 PPG, 2.1 APG)
So. F Ethan Happ
(13.9 PPG, 9.1 RPG)
Sr. F Nigel Hayes
(13.4 PPG, 6.3 RPG)

ACC
PPG: 79.3 | OPP: 74.4
With one of the nation’s best collection of 3-point shooters, the Hokies broke a 10-year NCAA Tournament drought in Buzz Williams’ third season as coach.

Sr. F Zach LeDay
(16.3 PPG, 7.4 RPG)
Sr. G Seth Allen
(13.4 PPG, 3.3 APG)
So. G Ahmed Hill
(11.6 PPG, 3.3 RPG)

ACC
PPG: 66.6 | OPP: 55.6
The Cavaliers’ top-scoring defense was as tough as ever, but Tony Bennett’s team won its fewest regular-season games in four years. Virginia is still searching for its first Final Four appearance in 33 years.

Sr. G London Perrantes
(12.5 PPG, 3.8 APG)
Jr. G Devon Hall
(8.7 PPG, 4.4 RPG)
Jr. F Isaiah Wilkins
(7.0 PPG, 6.2 RPG)

CAA
PPG: 85.2 | OPP: 74.9
Fueled by the 10th-highest scoring offense in the country, the Seahawks are returning to the tournament for the second straight year after notching the most wins in program history.

So. G C.J. Bryce
(17.5 PPG, 5.5 RPG)
Sr. G Chris Flemmings
(15.8 PPG, 5.5 RPG)
Sr. G Denzel Ingram
(14.8 PPG, 5.5 APG)

SEC
PPG: 78.8 | OPP: 66.4
Coach Mike White is proving there’s life in Gainesville after Billy Donovan. Gators mauled Kentucky by 20 points last month, and despite losing shot-blocker John Egbunu (torn ACL) their defense makes them a tough out.

So. G KeVaughn Allen
(13.9 PPG, .399 3-pt%)
Jr. F Devin Robinson
(10.9 PPG, 6.1 RPG)
Sr. G Kasey Hill
(9.8 PPG, 4.6 APG)

Southern
PPG: 79.9 | OPP: 69.4
It’s fitting that former junior college coach Steve Forbes reached his first NCAA Tournament with a former junior college star, highly skilled guard T.J. Cromer.

Sr. G T.J. Cromer
(19.1 PPG, 3.2 APG)
Jr. G Desonta Bradford
(10.6 PPG, 4.5 RPG)
Sr. F Tevin Glass
(8.9 PPG, 6.2 RPG)

ACC
PPG: 80.7 | OPP: 69.8
With the nation’s most loaded roster, the Blue Devils never reached their potential in the regular season, due to injuries, inexperience and immaturity. An ACC Tournament title shows they’ve turned the corner.

So. G Luke Kennard
(20.1 PPG, 5.3 RPG)
Fr. F Jayson Tatum
(16.9 PPG, 7.3 RPG)
Jr. G Grayson Allen
(14.1 PPG, 3.5 APG)

Sun Belt
PPG: 79.0 | OPP: 72.2
The Trojans booked their second trip to the NCAA Tournament in program history by catching fire late, winning 10 of their last 12 games, and winning the Sun Belt as the sixth seed in the conference tournament.

So. F Jordon Varnado
(16.5 PPG, 6.9 RPG)
Jr. G Wesley Person
(14.8 PPG, 2.5 RPG)
Sr. G Jeremy Hollimon
(12.0 PPG, 2.5 RPG)

SEC
PPG: 72.7 | OPP: 64.5
Sindarius Thornwell lost the SEC scoring title by .001, but he rebounds and defends (2.2 steals). The Gamecocks slumped late and will go as far as their ballhawking defense (7.9 steals per game) takes them.

Sr. G Sindarius Thornwell
(21.0 PPG, 7.2 RPG)
So. G PJ Dozier
(13.6 PPG, 4.8 RPG)
So. F Chris Silva
(5.7 RPG, 1.3 BPG)

Big East
PPG: 82.5 | OPP: 75.0
The best 3-point shooting team in the country (43 percent) will often have four players on the court at the same time capable of burying 3s, led by Markus Howard (54.9 percent).

Fr. G Markus Howard
(13.2 PPG, 2.3 RPG)
Sr. C Luke Fischer
(11.0 PPG, 5.9 RPG)
Jr. G Andrew Rowsey
(11.5 PPG, 2.3 APG)

Big 12
PPG: 72.7 | OPP: 62.7
Last season, Baylor took an early exit from the Big Dance at the hands of Harvard. That shouldn’t happen this season with a physical team ranking No. 10 in defensive efficiency behind Johnathan Motley.

Jr. F Johnathan Motley
(17.3 PPG, 9.9 RPG)
Jr. G Manu Lecomte
(12.4 PPG, 3.9 APG)
Jr. G Jo Lual-Acuil Jr.
(9.2 PPG, 7.0 RPG)

WAC
PPG: 79.2 | OPP: 67.5
New Mexico State finished in second during the regular season, but captured the WAC Tournament title. The Aggies boast a deep roster — nine players average 10-or-more minutes — and a go-to senior leader in Ian Baker.

Sr. G Ian Baker
(16.7 PPG, 4.1 APG)
Jr. G Braxton Huggins
(13.8 PPG, 2.6 RPG)
So. F Eli Chuha
(12.3 PPG, 8.9 RPG)

American
PPG: 74.6 | OPP: 59.4
Meet Semi Ojeleye, one of the most dynamic players nobody talks about, a lights-out 3-point shooter and quality rebounder who led SMU to its second American regular season title in three years.

Jr. F Semi Ojeleye
(18.5 PPG, 6.5 RPG)
So. G Shake Milton
(13.3 PPG, 4.5 APG)
Sr. G Sterling Brown
(12.8 PPG, 6.8 RPG)

Big East
PPG: 70.3 | OPP: 66.6
Picked to finish ninth in the Big East, the Friars stunned many by reaching the Big Dance, riding the impressive play of point guard Kyron Cartwright, one of the most improved players in the country.

Jr. G Kyron Cartwright
(11.4 PPG, 6.7 APG)
Jr. F Rodney Bullock
(15.7 PPG, 6.4 RPG)
Jr. G Jalen Lindsey
(10.2 PPG, 4.3 RPG)

Pac-12
PPG: 78.7 | OPP: 73.2
Andy Enfield hasn’t been able to replicate his “Dunk City” success at USC, but his Trojans are balanced offensively and plenty talented, with wins over SMU and UCLA already under their belt.

So. F Bennie Boatwright
(14.6 PPG, 4.3 RPG)
So. F Chimezie Metu
(14.5 PPG, 7.8 RPG)
Jr. G Jordan McLaughlin
(13.1 PPG, 5.5 APG)