THE second half is filled with interesting questions. Will Joe Mauer hit .400?
Will Barry Bonds be indicted? Will Alex Rodriguez ever be beloved in New York?
Our answers are probably not (in fact, Ichiro Suzuki will win the AL batting title). Probably (the bigger question is whether Bonds will take the Giants down with him?). And A-Rod will be loved when he does something big and booed when he doesn’t – the same as always.
For the five big questions of the second half, Hardball assembled an 18member committee of executives and scouts that includes eight GMs. For the promise of anonymity, they helped us with these issues:
WILL THE TIGERS FADE?
The strong consensus was Detroit will not play as well as the first half, when they had the majors’ best record, but will still make the playoffs. The voting nevertheless swayed heavily toward the White Sox winning the AL Central. The only voter who definitively did not pick Detroit to make the playoffs said, “The White Sox and Twins will overtake them. I even think the Indians will make a push, though they will fall short. This is more a credit to the strength of the division and not the Tigers’ weaknesses.” It is the schedule that inspires teams such as the Yanks, who can use a Tiger collapse to be more wildcard viable. A month ago, the 10 games Detroit still had against the Twins, seven of which are in the Metrodome, were hardly formidable. But the emergence of Francisco Liriano and Joe Mauer makes the Twins a major impediment. Detroit still has to go to Yankee Stadium and Fenway Park, plus it has 13 games left against the White Sox. In the first half, Detroit was 3-10 against the Yankees, Red Sox and White Sox and 56-19 vs. everyone else.
An NL scout observed, “They are a really good team that had the fortune of playing Cleveland and Kansas City a lot in the first half, and had the horrible NL Central in inter-league games. They are going to hit some bumps now.” In addition, Tigers starters Jeremy Bonderman, Nate Robertson and Kenny Rogers all have pitched dramatically worse in the second half in their careers.
Justin Verlander almost has exceeded his minor-league inning total from last season and fellow vital rookie Joel Zumaya has to make it through a full year as a highpowered set-up man for the first time. And an AL scout said, “To me the trouble spot is Todd Jones. His ERA is high [5.50] and his strikeouts are low [12].” But Detroit has a strong farm system and willing ownership to make trades.
WHO WILL BE THE BEST PLAYER TRADED THIS MONTH?
It is not just that there was near unanimity in Alfonso Soriano. But that not one of the 18 voters picked a pitcher. An NL GM said that if a big pitcher moves, he expects it to be part of a major trade, using as an example that the Giants could deal looming free agent Jason Schmidt and a reliever to the White Sox for a package that includes a starter back, such as Freddy Garcia or Javier Vazquez. The consensus beyond that was that the slumping Greg Maddux was probably the best pitcher who will change teams.
There was a proviso that the deals last week involving Aubrey Huff and Austin Kearns could serve as an impetus for other clubs to begin moving more seriously. The acquisition of Kearns in Washington certainly makes Soriano more likely to move, with the expectation that Nats GM Jim Bowden will lower his price closer to July 31.
Three voters picked Philadelphia outfielder Bobby Abreu, who interests both New York teams. An NL scout said, “I hope for the Phillies’ sake it is Bobby Abreu, so that he can go on with his career and play in a place where he might be able to smile and enjoy himself again. For the Phillies’ sake, it would turn the page and start to blow up a team that needs to be blown up. I think there is a better player inside Abreu than he has played this year. The media and fans just beat up the player so hard and I think he is worn down. Bobby Abreu used to play the game pretty damn hard. I used to write ‘most underrated player in the National League’ in all my reports.”
Two voters picked the unhappy Miguel Tejada, figuring Baltimore needs to begin a serious rebuilding. An AL GM who cited Tejada said, “I can’t figure out Baltimore. They signed [Melvin] Mora to an extension and signed [Ramon] Hernandez for a lot of money. Both at a time when they should be getting younger. They internally want to trade [Tejada], but I don’t know if ownership will let them. I know Anaheim wants him.”
WILL THE METS BE CHALLENGED?
While there was some feeling that the big lead could close some, every voter said the Mets would win the division. Most expected it to be by a substantial margin, which one AL assistant GM said is “mostly an indictment of the rest of the division.” An NL GM said, “They could play sixgamesunder the rest of the way and no one in the division is going to play well enough to beat them.” One AL GM looked at the bigger picture saying, “No chance the Mets are caught, they are too strong in a division full of weaklings. But the big question will be will they actually be battletested when the playoffs arrive because of how weak the division really is?” Anybody who even hinted at problems talked about pitching health, especially with Pedro Martinez. But there was near universal expectation that Omar Minaya would find a pitcher on the trade market.
WILL THE YANKEES MAKE THE PLAYOFFS?
Two themes resounded: The wild card will come from the AL Central and the Red Sox will be tough to catch because of superior pitching and defense (though the Yankees’ team ERA has been better than Boston’s most of the way). Nobody pronounced the Yanks dead.
But even those few who forecasted the playoffs did so for more historic reasons. As one NL farm director said, “They are the Yankees and they will find a way.” Many voters noted Boston’s schedule advantage. The Red Sox have been dominant at Fenway and open the second half with 26 of 38 games at home and have an AL-high 44 second-half games at home. The Yanks have lurking an 11-day, 12-game nightmare starting with an Aug. 18 doubleheader at Fenway that launches a five-game series before they have to fly to the coast with no off-day to play the Mariners and Angels.
An NL scout who actually gave the Yanks a 60-percent chance at the playoffs nevertheless said, “They have a tough schedule, they have age, they have injuries and they have pitching problems. But they are not dead yet and if they get healthier and [Mike] Mussina and [Randy] Johnson pitch well and ARod makes an MVP run, watch out.”
WHO WILL WIN THE NL WEST?
This is the LIE-at-rush-hour division. Five teams were within five games at the break. Yet a strong majority of voters favored the Dodgers, mostly because they have the best talent base and so many prospects to use in deals to upgrade in the next few weeks.
Nobody on this panel picked either Colorado or Arizona. There was some sentiment for the Giants and a little more for the Padres. One AL GM summed up that outlook, saying, “the Dodgers have the most talent, but the Padres and Giants have more grit and all things being equal they have the mental edge.” Joel Sherman’s e-mail address is joel.sherman@nypost.com. “Birth of a Dynasty,” his 10-year retrospective examining how the Yankees soared to the 1996 championship, is available in bookstores everywhere.
