LOUISVILLE – If someone told you a colt who won five of six starts, including the Fountain of Youth Stakes and Florida Derby, trained by two-time Kentucky Derby winner Nick Zito and ridden by Hall of Famer Jerry Bailey would be 8-1 or higher in Saturday’s 131st Run for the Roses, you’d think they were nuts.
Think again. High Fly, one of Zito’s “Fearsome Fivesome,” fits all those criteria.
But because Bellamy Road, Bandini and Afleet Alex – coming off runaway romps in the Wood Memorial, Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby, respectively – will be taking the bulk of the money, High Fly shapes up as an overlay.
With post positions to be chosen today (ESPN, 5-6 p.m., EDT), Bailey held a news conference yesterday at Churchill Downs, where he addressed Saturday’s big race, along with his thoughts on retirement and his new autobiography, “Against All Odds: Riding for My Life,” which chronicles not only his career but also his recovery from alcoholism.
“I’m kind of excited about High Fly,” said Bailey, who won the Derby on Sea Hero in 1993 and Grindstone in 1996.
“I know he’s under the radar screen, but he’s only been beaten one time. The distance may be a question mark, but there’s a lot to be said for a horse that finds a way to get it done every time. He’s got multiple gears, so that I can move and place him at different points as the race unfolds.”
Comparing the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby, Bailey noted, “The two races unfolded the same. But in the Fountain of Youth, I geared him down the last 100 yards. It looked like Bandini was closing in, but I knew [High Fly] was coming back in a short amount of time and going for a million dollars, so I was trying to conserve what I could.
“In the Florida Derby, I asked for a little more the last eighth of a mile, and I thought he finished a bit better.
“He’s had five weeks off. I went over his past performances, and he ran very well his first race back at Gulfstream off a six-week layoff. So I think the time will probably benefit him, and Nick’s recent history has been pretty good off a layoff.”
Sizing up the field, which figures to reach the maximum 20 starters, Bailey said, “If you told me one of eight horses would win, it wouldn’t surprise me. I know Bellamy Road is the flavor of the week right now, and deservedly so. It was a fantastic Wood, a Secretariat-like performance. But of all the other horses, I think High Fly compares equally as good.
“The Derby is a tale of trips. If you’re on a come-from-behind horse, you need a lot of luck. If you’re on a speed horse, you better hope he’s more than one-dimensional. If you have to be on the lead in the Kentucky Derby, you have to win three or four races within the one race, because people take shots at you all the way around the track.”
In other words, the favorite could be vulnerable.
“If Bellamy Road plans on being on the lead, he better be Secretariat,” said Bailey.
“If that’s his style, he’s going to have to be as good as his Wood. I’m not sure if he can duplicate that. But if that’s the performance he brings to the Derby, we all may be running for second.”
Bailey said it was “somewhat likely” this Derby, his 17th, will be his last.
“Last November, I was very close to retiring,” he said. “But at the end of December, I wanted to come back and ride, and I was hopeful a live [Derby] horse would come my way. After the [Oct. 29] Breeders’ Cup, I’ll give it three or four weeks, and before the end of the year I’ll decide.”
His book “was a piece of work I’ve been wanting to do for quite a while. My philosophy was that, if I could help one person out there, then it was worth it, because somebody reached out and helped me.
“If somebody didn’t, I’d probably be dead, in jail or in an insane asylum, the three most likely scenarios for a person that cannot put the bottle down. I certainly wouldn’t be talking to you today.”
