The Kentucky Derby is just 10 days away, and although Fusaichi Pegasus will be the solid betting choice, he’s facing a formidable field of challengers. Remember that no favorite has won the Derby since Spectacular Bid in 1979, and Fusaichi Pegasus has a couple of big questions to answer that “Bid” didn’t.
One method of handicapping the Derby over the past 20 years or so is to look at the “historical factors” common to most winners. These include:
1) A dosage index of 4.00 or under.
2) Being a stakes winner as a 2-year-old and/or winning at a mile or over at 2.
3) Finishing 1-2-3 in one of the major preps at 1 1/8 miles (the Florida Derby, Jim Beam, Santa Anita Derby, Blue Grass, Wood Memorial, Arkansas Derby).
4) A fast workout at Churchill Downs before the race.
5) Never having run in a claiming race.
If you took these five factors into account last year, the first horse you would have eliminated is Charismatic, who won the roses at 30-1. Still, the historical handicapping angle has held up well enough over the years that it shouldn’t be abandoned just yet.
One reason this year’s Derby is so contentious isn’t just that so many talented colts are running; it’s that so many of them also have flaws. Let’s look at the knocks on the top contenders:
FUSAICHI PEGASUS (5-2): No horse has won Derby off just five starts since Winning Colors in 1988, and last horse to win without breaking his maiden at 2 was Proud Clarion in 1967. No Wood Memorial winner has won Derby since Pleasant Colony in 1981. Also, tends to act up before his races, so how’s he going to handle Derby Day crowd?
THE DEPUTY (4-1): Bred in Ireland and raced in England as 2-year-old; only two horses bred overseas have won the Derby, the last being Tomy Lee in 1959, and no horse ever has won who raced in Europe at 2. Trainer Jenine Sahadi has never run a horse in Triple Crown.
HIGH YIELD (9-2): His two big wins this year came wire to wire in the Fountain of Youth and Blue Grass, but only six horses in last 30 years have won Derby in front-running style (that is, led all the way or were pressing the early pace), and there’s a lot of speed in this year’s field. If he’s rated instead, has shown unwillingness to pass horses in stretch.
WAR CHANT (6-1): With just four starts, he’s even more lightly raced than stablemate Fusaichi Pegasus. Showed lack of maturity last two starts as he loafed or looked around in stretch.
ANEES (10-1): Two big jinxes to break: No 2-year-old champion has won Derby since “Bid” in ’79, and no winner of Breeders’ Cup Juvenile has ever won. Hampered by bad feet over winter, has run just twice this year; last horse to win Derby with just two starts at 3 was Sunny’s Halo in 1983, and he was much more experienced at 2.
MORE THAN READY (12-1): Has never won beyond seven furlongs, had the lead in mid-stretch of last two races but finished second, so distance is big question mark. Trainer Todd Pletcher never has run horse in Triple Crown and jockey John Velazquez has never won TC race. Also, was very precocious 2-year-old, breaking his maiden in April; most Derby winners develop later in the season.
CAPTAIN STEVE (15-1): Winless this year, though that could be said of trainer Bob Baffert’s ’98 Derby winner Real Quiet, along with Go for Gin in ’94 and Sea Hero in ’93. Biggest knock is pedigree: He’s by Fly So Free from Damascus sire line, which has never produced a Derby winner despite many top contenders.
APTITUDE (15-1): Strong pedigree and late-running style will make him “wise guy” horse this year, but has started just five times, didn’t break his maiden at 2, is still eligible for a non-winners of one allowance race, and trainer Bobby Frankel has never won a Triple Crown or Breeders’ Cup event.
All the other horses in this year’s Derby figure to be 25-1 or higher, and while they might outfinish two, three or even four of the top contenders listed above, it’s hard to imagine any of them beating all eight.
