THERE was a time not long ago when Dolphins-Cowboys would have been an offensive show, three hours of fireworks and bombs filling the air. But on Thanksgiving Day in Dallas, even though both Dan Marino and Troy Aikman are expected to return to their respective lineups, defense should rule the day.
Even when Marino was healthy earlier in the year, the Dolphins were a field-goal machine. And the injury to Larry Allen will make it tough for Emmitt Smith against the swarming Dolphin front seven. Not to say the game’s gonna be a turkey, because this one definitely will be worth watching.
The pick here is the Cowboys, (-21/2), who are 4-0 with four covers at home, in a tight one over Jimmy Johnson.
Bears (+6) over LIONS
Lions will rebound from two-game tailspin and play a spirited holiday game. But the Bears have a good thing going with QB Jim Miller and WR Marcus Robinson, and they’ve been incredible underdogs, 10-1-1 against the spread since last season.
SUNDAY
Jets (+7) over COLTS
Jets had the Colts all but beaten Oct. 17 when Ray Lucas threw the interception on a pass Bill Parcells never should have called. Curtis Martin had 128 yards in that game and has been even better since, while Bill Belichick’s defense held the Peyton Manning juggernaut to its lowest scoring output — by nine points. The Jets not only have a good shot to cover, but also get out of the RCA Dome with their impossible playoff dream intact.
GIANTS (-41/2) over Cardinals
If Cards were guaranteed to have a healthy Jake Plummer and Michael Pittman, they’d be an intriguing pick. However, the Giants own the Cards in the Meadowlands and the Big Blue defense will be so surly, can envision Dave Brown and Adrian Murrell curling up in the fetal position. Question is, how much better will Kerry Collins do than the three points he put up against the Cards in Arizona?
BILLS (-4) over Patriots
In the last couple of weeks, Pats defense has given up 31 points to Damon Huard, 27 to Ray Lucas and 27 more to Huard and Scott Zolak. Bills are 4-1 at home and Doug Flutie will be ready to go off again after his customary thumping by Belichick.
VIKINGS (-131/2) over Chargers
Chargers have lost five in a row by combined 149-49, an average defeat of 20 points a game for all you non math majors. There’s no reason to pick them now, not against the playoff-hungry Vikings, who are coming off their bye.
REDSKINS (-10) over Eagles
Two weeks ago at the Vet, Skins outgained Eagles by nearly 200 yards but lost 35-28 thanks to six turnovers. This game should be more like last week’s Giants game, when Stephen Davis ran wild and Brad Johnson had no INTs or sacks. Skins’ defense has been decent the last two weeks, as well.
Bengals (+101/2) over STEELERS
Although Bengals are 1-10, they’ve actually scored 65 points the last three weeks against good Seattle, Tennessee and Baltimore defenses. Kordell Stewart is still in a fog in Kevin Gilbride’s offense, making it hard to justify giving double-digits.
Jaguars (-7) over RAVENS
In nine meetings between the franchises, six games have been decided by three or fewer points, including a 6-3 Jags win two weeks ago in Jacksonville. Tom Coughlin delivered on his promise to open up the offense against the Saints, and the Ravens don’t have the offense to keep up if the Jags get revving.
Titans (-101/2) over BROWNS
Browns have two wins and have been competitive on the road, but at home they are 0-5, outscored 152-50. Titans are 8-2 and are making a run at the 9-1 Jags for the AFC Central title and top seed in the conference. They won’t take any chances letting the Browns hang around in this one.
RAMS (-14) over Saints
Worried about the spread? Know that every one of the Rams’ eight wins have been by 16 points or more. If Mike Ditka thought Jags threw ball all over the yard on Saints, he ain’t seen nothing yet. And even if Saints hang tough for a while, they still can get blown out in the end.
SEAHAWKS (-6) over Buccaneers
Jon Kitna put up 31 against the Chiefs defense at Arrowhead, so don’t think he’s going to quake at the sight of Warren Sapp. The quaking will be done by Trent Dilfer and Mike (Fum-bulll!) Alstott, as the Bucs offense suffers a meltdown in the Kingdome noise.
Chiefs (+31/2) over RAIDERS
Although Chiefs are 1-4 on the road, you have to respect their recent history in this matchup. KC has covered 11 of last 12 overall against the Raiders, including 7 of last 9 at LA/Oakland.
Falcons (+41/2) over PANTHERS
Falcons would have covered against the tough Bucs if not for an interception return on the last play. Panthers don’t have a big-time defense, so Chris Chandler might get into a little groove.
MONDAY NIGHT
Packers (-6) over 49ERS
Antonio Freeman is a question mark after concussion suffered on Mark Carrier’s cheap shot. But against the Niners’ invisible defense, Brett Favre, with thumb feeling better, will have his pick of open receivers all night. The San Francisco embarrassment goes prime time.
BEST BETS: Jaguars, Titans, Rams.
LAST WEEK: 7-8. BEST BETS: 2-1.
