Since Tony Gwynn and Cal Ripken were obvious first-ballot choices and all polls of the writers suggested Mark McGwire had no chance, the most interesting thing in this year’s election probably was what it does for next year. Since Tony Gwynn and Cal Ripken were obvious first-ballot choices and all polls of the writers suggested Mark McGwire had no chance, the most interesting thing in this year’s election probably was what it does for next year’s?

The happiest guy should be Goose Gossage, who despite the presence of two sure first ballot guys, still picked up enough votes to get him past the 70 per cent threshold. Nobody who has ever gotten 70 per cent of the vote — only five percent short of the required number for election — has ever failed to eventually get in.

Jim Rice slipped back a little (64.8 to 63.5, but probably not enough to kill his chances. Andre Dawson’s and Bert Blyleven’s drop (Dawson is now 56.7 and Blyleven at 47.7) was more troublesome to their eventual election, but not necessarily fatal.

To me, a player is either a Hall of Famer or he is not and I vote that way, not dropping or adding namesfrom my yearly ballot based on their growing or diminishing chances.

But not all voters proceed that way, obviously. And since Tim Raines, not a Hall of Famer by any stretch of the imagaination, is the most accomplished player who will appear on the ballot for the first time next year, other players will pick up votes as some voters will feel compelled to not leave a ballot nearly blank.

Thus next year likely will tell the story on Rice, Dawson, Lee Smith (to be helped by Gossage going in next year) and Blyleven. Except for Smith, I have been voting for them all and Jack Morris, too. And I don’t forsee making any changes on my ballot next year.