The Post’s Joel Sherman takes a look at the names and teams that will be making news in 2009:
AMERICAN LEAGUE
CY YOUNG
Jon Lester, Red Sox. He had a huge innings jump last year, so that is a bit scary. But he is a strike-throwing, fearless horse with well-above-average stuff.
MVP
Evan Longoria, Rays. I see a 40-homer Gold Glover winner, and it is possible his top competition will come from teammate B.J. Upton.
MOST IMPROVED TEAM
Rangers. There is a lot of optimism that both Cleveland and Oakland are about to take a major step forward. But I have real questions about both rotations: How good are Cliff Lee and Fausto Carmona for the Indians, and are all of those young Oakland starters really ready for prime time? Texas also has major rotation questions but has incredible young talent percolating just beneath and an improved defense. I would not be surprised if the Rangers climb to .500 in 2009.
BIGGEST DROPOFF
Blue Jays. Do you know they have averaged slightly better than 85 wins over the past three years? But A.J. Burnett is gone, and Shaun Marcum and Dustin McGowan are injured, plus they might be forced to trade ace Roy Halladay (the combination that Halladay will have a sub-par team behind him and could get traded to the NL is why I did not pick him for the Cy Young).
BEST FREE-AGENT SIGNING
John Smoltz, Red Sox. This signing may not work for everyone. But once the Red Sox’s bid failed on Mark Teixeira, they had plenty of cash. And for a big-market team, a one-year, $5.5 million gamble on a motivated, athletic star who also happens to be among the best big-game pitchers ever, works.
WORST FREE-AGENT SIGNING
Kyle Farnsworth, Royals. Really … a two-year investment in this guy? A $9.5 million guarantee for this guy? This guy has taken a straight fastball and a low pitching IQ a pretty darn long way.
BEST TRADE ACQUISITION
Mark DeRosa, Indians. From a deep system, Cleveland gave up three pitchers whose absence will not harm the state of the farm for a versatile, team-oriented guy. DeRosa had an OPS (.857) last year comparable to AL MVP Dustin Pedroia’s (.869).
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR
Matt Wieters, Orioles. Wieters is not expected up until May. But when he arrives, the catcher will join outfielders Nick Markakis and Adam Jones as long-term building blocks for the Orioles, whose pool of young talent keeps expanding.
MANAGER OF THE YEAR
Terry Francona, Red Sox. He has a lot of moving parts in a difficult atmosphere, but always seems to have a firm grasp on his roster, and that should be even easier in his first full season without Manny Ramirez.
FIRST MANAGER FIRED
Jim Leyland, Tigers. Due to the Detroit economy and a roster that just doesn’t mesh well, the Tigers could be facing a truly ugly season.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
CY YOUNG
Ricky Nolasco, Marlins. There are many reasons not to pick him. He pitched a ton of innings last year after missing most of 2007 with injuries. He has a bad defense behind him. But every time I see him, I am convinced I am watching one of the majors’ best pitchers, and what fun is there in picking Johan Santana?
MVP
Ryan Howard, Phillies. He hits 62 homers and the questions arise if he should be viewed as the legitimate single-season, homer champ. You probably have to hit 62 homers to beat out Albert Pujols. Surprise top-five finish: Atlanta catcher Brian McCann.
MOST IMPROVED TEAM
Braves. The fragility of the bullpen and Chipper Jones are worries. But Atlanta has added workhorse dependability to its rotation (Derek Lowe and Javier Vazquez) and has an excellent stable of young players arriving that should boost it way beyond last year’s 72 wins and very possibly into NL East contention with the Phillies and Mets.
BIGGEST DROPOFF
Brewers. They lost CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets from their first playoff team since 1982, and the current rotation is simply uninspiring.
BEST FREE-AGENT SIGNING
Jon Garland, Diamondbacks. As a workhorse, groundball pitcher, Garland is about 80 percent of Derek Lowe. But at $7.25 million for one year, he comes at about 12 percent of the price the Braves paid Lowe ($60 million for four years).
WORST FREE-AGENT SIGNING
Ryan Dempster, Cubs. He might be fine, but because he signed early in the offseason — before the worst of the economy swamped the game — he got way more ($52 million over four years) than an early-30s pitcher without a strong track record as a starter deserved. Yes, the Giants’ two-year, $18.5 million deal for Edgar Renteria was ridiculous.
BEST TRADE ACQUISITION
J.J. Putz, Mets. The Mets gave up seven pieces in a three-way deal, but a long-time GM once said, “I would rather have quality than quantity. Too often, someone offers me [bleep] and then offers me more [bleep] and I am supposed to be excited about that.” The Mets gave up a little more than bleep, but nothing approaching gold. And besides Putz, the Mets also obtained Sean Green, who one very good AL hitter told me is incredibly hard to hit well.
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR
Tommy Hanson, Braves. He begins the year in the minors. But he is ready now to be a force, and is Tom Glavine really making it through the season healthy? Outfielders Cameron Maybin of the Marlins and Andrew McCutchen of the Pirates make it a race.
MANAGER OF THE YEAR
Tony La Russa, Cardinals. This could be his final year in St. Louis after a long tour of duty because I sense tension between the manager’s office and the front office. But something tells me that the Cardinals pester the NL Central heavy favorite Cubs all the way into September.
FIRST MANAGER FIRED
Clint Hurdle, Rockies. From surprise NL champs in 2007 to this. In a winnable division, the Rockies don’t have the look of even a serious contender.
