LOUISVILLE – Bellamy Road is likely to win the Kentucky Derby today because he goes into it after running the fastest race of any three-year-old in nearly a quarter of a century.
That’s the evaluation of one of the sharpest thoroughbred judges in the U.S., Jerry Brown, proprietor of Thoro-Graph, the long-established speed-and-performance sheet that charts the progress of all horses through their racing careers.
“I have been in the business for more than 22 years and I’ve never seen a three-year-old run a number like Bellamy Road in the Wood Memorial,” Brown said yesterday. “I was not charting horses in the ’70s, but Bellamy Road’s Wood was so brilliant I doubt that even Secretariat could have gone with him.
“I’d be surprised if Secretariat could stick with this horse.”
On Brown’s figures, the lower the number the better. He assigned Bellamy Road minus-5 in the Wood and the only other horse near that was last year’s star three-year-old Smarty Jones, who ran a minus-3 3/4 in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn and in the Preakness at Pimlico.
Bellamy Road is probably the most exciting horse on the American landscape today, chiefly because of his astounding 17 1/2-length triumph in the Wood in which he equaled the track record at Aqueduct. He won the race with such ease it was faintly reminiscent of Secretariat’s unforgettable 31-length blowout in the 1973 Belmont Stakes.
But the big question to be answered today is: Can Bellamy Road repeat that bravura show in the Derby at Churchill Downs over a mile and a quarter?
Said Brown, “He doesn’t have to. He could run two or three points slower today, which is the equivalent of about five lengths, and still have a good chance to win the Derby.
“Last year, Smarty Jones did not run as fast in the Derby as in his prep race in the Arkansas Derby, but he was so dominant he could still beat the others. Actually, Smarty Jones’ fastest race was in the Preakness.”
Many students of the game wonder if Bellamy Road might “bounce” himself out of the money today – a racing term for horses that regress after running the fastest races of their careers.
Brown said, “Of the last 20 horses who jumped three points or more in their final Derby prep [like Bellamy Road], only two ran that well again. Eighteen of them bounced, 16 of them badly.
“But having said that, I think the fact that Bellamy Road is lightly raced – he’s only had two races this year, which some are holding against him – is a plus. He is not worn down. It’s four weeks since the Wood, so I think he is less likely to bounce than some of the other horses in there.
“He may not run his best race in the Derby, but if it’s within shouting distance of it, it would make him the likely winner. Of course, that’s not to say he is a good bet at 5-2.”
Brown is adamant that the question facing Bellamy Road is: How long can he keep running at this level?
“When Secretariat was running in the ’70s, the cushion on the Belmont Park track was 2 ½ inches,” said Brown. “Today, it’s 3 ½ inches. They have put a lot more sand on it [and other tracks] and so the horses are running on much slower tracks.
“But they are also running much faster times and that takes a heavy toll. It is almost impossible for horses to put together a succession of races like Bellamy Road’s Wood. They can’t survive it.
“The question about that horse is trying to guess when enough is enough. It was very difficult with Smarty Jones. He managed to win the Derby with a subpar effort, but he came back to run his best race in the Preakness.”
Another who won’t be surprised if Bellamy Road wins the Derby like Secretariat is Ted Sexton, George Steinbrenner’s farm boss and bloodstock adviser, who persuaded the Yankees’ boss to buy the horse for $87,000.
“This horse is a champion and he knows it,” said Sexton. “I know this horse better than anyone – and we haven’t seen the best of him yet. The main course is coming. The only horses I’m a little wary of in the Derby are Bandini and Afleet Alex. The rest of them I’m not concerned with.”
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Post staff picks
ED FOUNTAINE
Bellamy Road, Sun King, Noble Causeway
RAY KERRISON
Sun King, Afleet Alex, Bellamy Road
JOHN DaSILVA
Afleet Alex, High Fly, Bandini
VIC CANGIALOSI
Wilko, Bellamy Road, Bandini
GREG GALLO
Sun King, Alfeet Alex, Wilko
BILL SMITH
Noble Causeway, Bellamy Road, Sun King
ANTHONY AFFRUNTI
Afleet Alex, Flower Alley, Wilko
DEBBIE LITTLE
Giacomo, High Fly, Bellamy Road
DICK KLAYMAN
High Fly, Noble Causeway, Afleet Alex
BATTMAN
Bellamy Road, Bandini, Closing Argument
