UFC Fight Night returns after a stellar PPV card last week featuring two title fights and plenty more fun bouts. This week’s Fight Night is admittedly much lighter in terms of star power and competitiveness. In fact, this week’s card has a lot of lopsided betting lines.

This has been a recent trend that we’ve seen a lot from sportsbooks. They seemingly no longer want parlays of favorites and are buying the hype of prospects.

However, this is where research really pays dividends. Understanding a fighter’s background, what camp they train with, and their past quality of opponents can really do wonders for you as an MMA bettor.

If you are new to the fight betting game, feel free to check out our how-to bet on UFC fights betting guide.

Odds provided by BetMGM

The main event for this weekend features two serious contenders in the welterweight division. Luque is coming off of two first-round submission victories, one against Tyron Woodley and another against Michael Chiesa.

Luque is one of the most entertaining fighters in the sport. He is always moving forward, never backing down, and can finish you anywhere in the octagon. His opponent has improved in each fight with his wrestling and boxing looks better. However, these two fighters have squared off before. In that fight, Muhammad suffered his only KO loss.

It is important to mention how good Muhammad has looked, to the tune of six straight wins and 10 wins in his last 11 fights. Muhammad has weaponized his cardio and just never gets tired. In this game, cardio is king, and Muhammad has loads of it. Moreover, I have plenty of questions about Luque’s ability to stay calm, collected, and poised if he doesn’t get an early finish. This is a five-round fight, not three.

I will actually back the underdog here at the odds we are presented for Muhammad. He has clearly worked on his wrestling and while I’m terrified of a choke from Luque while Muhammad charges in for a double-leg takedown, I believe that Muhammad’s cardio wins out here.

The first time this fight happened, Muhammad was +100 while Luque closed as the -125 favorite. The gap is too wide here for the rematch. Back the underdog here as Muhammad continues to show solid fight IQ and cardio to get him to the promised land.

UFC Fight Night best bet: Muhammad wins by decision +275 (DraftKings) | Fight to start Round 3 -230 (FanDuel)

Do not ask me to pronounce Gadzhi Omargadzhiev’s name. The unbeaten Russian fighter has all the makings of a major prospect in the UFC. However, the tape on Omargadzhiev is nearly non-existent.

He had a first-round submission to earn a UFC contract on the Dana White Contender’s Series in October. However, whenever fighters come internationally, I want to investigate his opponents before crowning them the next Khabib.

The combined record of his opponents in his professional fighting career comes in at 90-68 with wins against multiple fighters 1-1, 0-1. and 1-2 fighters on his resume. Moreover, he lost three times in his amateur career from 2014 to 2018 per Sherdog including a TKO loss.

Backing a favorite with this much uncertainty is never a good idea. Back Borralho, who we have much information on and his 10-1 record.

UFC Fight Night best bet: Borralho +115 ML (BetMGM)

This bet was placed on Caesars Sportsbook using their parlay feature. Be on the lookout for promotions on UFC parlays as fight night nears on Saturday. Some of their lines are a bit more appetizing than other books.

Their over 1.5-rounds prop for Muhammad/Luque is particularly tasty considering where other books have it. Martin Buday should roll against Chris Barnett this weekend.