Fresh off of our first (hopefully, of many) undefeated UFC Fight Night last weekend, we are back for another night of fights.
This weekend’s card is similar to last weekend’s. A lot of virtual unknowns, plenty of wide favorites, and prospects looking to make a name for themselves.
This week also had a lot of fights in Bellator and the PFL. Those promotions are really putting on entertaining and fun fights to bet on so be sure to catch those going forward. If you haven’t already, read Scott Fontana’s interview with PFL champion Antonio Carlos Jr., you should. He’s one of the good guys in MMA.
Without further adieu, let’s cash some tickets for another big weekend betting on UFC Fight Night.
UFC Fight Night best bets
Main Event: Jessica Andrade (-200) vs. Amanda Lemos (+168)
The main event for Fight Night tonight features Jessica Andrade and Amanda Lemos. Lemos fought a few times at 135lbs but has since cut down to strawweight, 115lbs.
Lemos’ power has really shown to be a problem for other women to handle — showcased by her producing knockdowns in four straight fights. This is very rare as only 11.4 percent of strawweight bouts end in a TKO per FightMatrix.
The problem with Lemos isn’t her talent or skillset; it’s really just her cardio. In her last fight against Angela Hill, Lemos was a -500 favorite and should’ve lost the fight. After getting a first-round knockdown, she wilted in rounds 2 and 3 but still got a very controversial decision win. I scored it for Hill despite betting on Lemos.
In this five-round fight, Andrade will not get tired. This is not a good spot for Lemos,
I expect Andrade to get the finish here after round one.
Jessica Andrade shoots for a single-leg takedown against Katlyn Chookagian Zuffa LLC via Getty ImagesAndrade usually gets TKOs at this point in her career. In the past, she was a jiu-jitsu savant who uses a guillotine choke to her advantage very well. The roadmap to this is quite simple – Lemos shoots a desperation takedown and gets tapped out.
Andrade by sub is +600 on DraftKings. You could also choose to bet Andrade and under 3.5 rounds at +140 on DraftKings. Both are fine wagers for Saturday.
Lemos vs. Andrade prediction: Andrade wins by submission (guillotine choke) +600 | Andrade wins in under 3.5 rounds +140 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Fight Night prelim best bet: Evan Elder (+114) vs. Preston Parsons (-134)
In a light main card with big favorites and lots of expected decisions, this one stands out on the prelims. Evan Elder is a very highly regarded prospect with the Nick Diaz Academy. He takes this fight on short notice against Preston Parsons.
Both very young fighters, and Parsons is 9-3 with two losses by KO/TKO. That’s the clear weak spot in his game, he’s not the best striker. However, his submission game is absolutely top-tier. Elder is undefeated in his UFC career and has some really solid striking if you dig through his tape.
My pick is going to be Elder moneyline because I think he has more ways to win. Parsons is pretty much sub or bust.
Fight Night best bet: Evan Elder +114 (FanDuel)
UFC Fight Night parlay +573: Andrade (-210) + Jourdain/Vanneta GTD (-155) + Lins/Prachnio over 1.5 rounds (-150) + Grant/Khandozhko GTD (-155)
We cashed this last week as well at over +600 so let’s do it again this weekend. As stated above, Andrade is the play in the main event. A few notes on the other three legs…
- Lins vs. Prachnio is at light heavyweight. Lins is moving down from his usual spot at heavyweight. Neither fighter pushes the pace very much.
- Charles Jourdain and Lando Vanneta will be the fight of the night. Both are decision machines — Jourdain has a 57.1 percent decision rate and Vanneta 85.7 percent decision rate in their last seven fights.
- Sergey Khandozhko has had both of his fights go to a decision in the UFC, and Dwight Grant has gone the distance in back-to-back fights as well.
