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UFC Fight Night is back this weekend for more violence! Next week, the UFC will be off for Memorial Day Weekend so enjoy these fights while they last, it’ll have to last you two weeks.
This weekend’s main event is a bit less intriguing compared to weekends in the past. For some reason, the UFC has chosen to give Holly Holm another main event spot, despite not being in contention for a title in years.
Regardless, we have UFC Fight Night predictions and as usual, the UFC parlay for tonight.
Last week, picks went 1-1 with a win on the biggest underdog on the card, Andre Petroski. On the night we profited 1.1 units, bringing our total up to 18.5 units since March 7th.
Holly Holm knocks out Ronda Rousey, on November 14, 2015. AFP via Getty ImagesUFC Fight Night prediction and best bets
Ketlen Viera (+205) vs. Holy Holm (-260)
We know this one is extremely likely to go the distance as both fighters’ last three wins have been by decision. Neither fighter has the best roadmap to a finish as Holm’s power is mostly gone at this point and she isn’t the best grappler.
The one fighter that does possess some finishing capability to Viera and her grappling. However, she has only successfully submitted one opponent so far in the UFC, and Holm’s grappling defense is still top notch.
The odds of Holm getting submitted are slim so the best spot is to pick a fighter by decision. Given the massive odds discrepancy and relatively low skill gap between the two, the value spot is Ketlen Viera. Her striking isn’t as crisp as Holm but her grappling is solid and eventually, Holm’s skills will regress. That could start here.
It is worth noting that this fight will take place in the smaller cage, which favors Viera. If you are more risk-averse, take the fight goes the distance -220.
Viera vs. Holm pick
Ketlen Viera wins by decision +420 (FanDuel)
Chidi Njokuani vs. Dusko Todorovic
Kickboxer Chidi Nkoukuani burst onto the scene in a huge way in his UFC debut in February. Njokuani knocked out Marc-Andre Barriault in just 16 seconds, one of the most impressive debuts in recent memory.
He faces off against Dusko Todorovic, who is 11-2 in the UFC. Todorovic was brutally knocked out by Punahele Soriano in January 2021 and is 1-1 since then. He did TKO Maki Pitolo in December who was immediately cut following the loss.
Njokuani is an extremely impressive Muay Thai fighter and Todorvic’s chin doesn’t give anyone much confidence he can sustain any barrage of strikes by an opponent. Njokuani by KO is the play here, and early.
Njokuani vs Todorovic pick
Njokuani wins in under 2.5 rounds +130 (PointsBet)
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UFC Fight Night parlay +1494
Holm/Viera GTD -220 + Njokuani/Todorovic doesn’t start R3 -146 + Ponzinhibbio ML +115 + Amedovski/Holmes GTD +180
Odds are provided by DraftKings Sportsbook
A few notes for tonight’s UFC Fight Night parlay.
- Ponzinhibio opened as a favorite in his fight against Pereira. He’s a higher-volume striker who is not afraid to mix it up. Expecting a gross split decision here and the Ribas loss still sticks in my head about optics playing a big role in judging. However, the line has gotten big enough here for a reasonable value spot.
- You might not have watched Joesph Holmes’ regional fights but that’s why you’re here, for that kind of insight. Holmes’ regional tape is pretty terrible. He won plenty of low-level fights thanks to his size advantages. However, his grappling is filled with errors and his striking is not crisp. Amedovski isn’t great either, expecting a low-level fight that ends in a split decision.
