Hi. Welcome to the Fantasy Shopping Network. I’m your host, Dan Playwell, here with my colleague, Sally Scoreboard. Sally, we have found a great fantasy bargain for this week. You want to tell everyone about it?
Sally: Sure, Dan. As everyone knows, the deeper you get into an NFL season, the easier it is the find certain trends. You can use those trends to find splendid deals on certain players.
Dan: That’s right, Sally. Take the bargain we’re about to show you. Be prepared for a shock: He is not his team’s top receiving option.
Sally: Well, that seems counterintuitive, Dan.
Dan: It might, but that’s actually a selling point here, Sally. Take a look at this sparkling matchup for Sterling Shepard against the Saints. He is a real fantasy steal this week, facing a defense that is bad at defending the pass. How bad, Sally? “Worst in the league at defending opposing fantasy receivers” kind of bad.
Sally: Wow, Dan. Shepard does look like quite the fantasy buy this week.
Dan: But not only that, Sally. The Saints have a strong cornerback in Marshon Lattimore, who could spend the day locking horns with top Giants receiving threat Odell Beckham Jr., which could funnel extra targets Shepard’s way.
Sally: Goodness. Makes you wonder how everyone isn’t flocking to get some shares of Shepard this week, Dan.
Dan: That’s right, Sally. But wait, there’s more. The Saints have yielded huge games to secondary wide receivers through the first three weeks — Week 1, DeSean Jackson: five catches for 146 yards and two TDs; in Week 2, a surprising fantasy outburst by Antonio Callaway: three receptions for 81 yards and a score; last week, a monster breakout game for Calvin Ridley — 7-for-146 and three TDs.
Sally: You said it, Dan. But we’re not done. Giants tight end Evan Engram is out with a knee injury. That is should mean more targets across the board for Giants receiving options, including Shepard. And don’t forget, just two seasons ago, before Engram joined the cast, Shepard hauled in eight TD catches. [italic] Eight. [end ital] That’s a little history lesson for you there, Dan.
Dan: Thanks, Sally. You know, I didn’t do very well in history class (forced laughter).
Sally: Another perk that comes with this investment, if you check out the Over/Under on Saints-Giants, you’ll see a big, impressive “50.” That’s a lot of expected points. And you know what they say about expected points, Dan?
Dan: The more expected points, the more expected fantasy points.
Sally: You are a sharp one, Dan. For you season-long fantasy viewers at home, you can reap the rewards of using Shepard this week. All you have to is bench players such as Randall Cobb, Quincy Enunwa, Corey Davis, Sammy Watkins or Amari Cooper. Simple as that.
Dan: Or if you’re playing daily, Shepard comes at the bargain price of $6,200 on FanDuel and $4,900 on DraftKings.
Sally: Now that is a sterling buy, Dan (forced laughter). So viewers, get out there and get this Sterling wide receiver piece into your lineup. Hurry. Act now.
The Decision
Post fantasy Madman Drew Loftis and Roto Rage Jarad Wilk debate whom you should start this week:
Sony Michel vs. Kerryon Johnson
Drew: Michel — The Patriots rookie has gotten an increasing number of carries each week. He is facing a Dolphins team that ranks in the bottom third in points allowed to opposing fantasy RBs. Rex Burkhead is out for the year, leaving just Michel and James White as legitimate backfield options. And White is almost exclusively a passing-down RB. Oh, did we mention Detroit has had just one 100-yard rusher since 2013, and that was Johnson last week. Can he come through two weeks in a row after the team has failed to do so even once for more than four seasons? Especially since LeGarrette Blount is likely to get goal-line carries?
Jarad: Johnson — Michel may be the main option in New England, but it seems like it’s a bit more out of necessity because of Burkhead’s injury. Michel is averaging just 3.5 yards per carry in his first two games; Johnson is averaging a healthy 5.5 yards per carry (he averaged 6.3 against the Pats). Johnson also has been targeted in the passing game 12 times to Michel’s two. The Cowboys’ defense looked solid against the Giants’ rushing attack in Week 2, but allowed a combined 195 yards rushing and two TDs versus Carolina and Seattle. Just because Johnson was Detroit’s first 100-yard rusher since 2013 doesn’t mean he can’t do it in back-to-back weeks.
Last week: Drew 19.6 (Giovani Bernard — 12-61 rushing, 5-25 receiving, 1 TD), Jarad 14.1 (James White — 4-37 rushing, 3-14 receiving, 1 TD)
Season: Drew leads series, 2-1
Big Weeks
Case Keenum QB, Broncos, vs. Chiefs
(FanDuel $6,500/DK $5,600)
No big secret to start opposing QBs against Chiefs, expecting shootouts. With pair of top targets in Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas, even Keenum is no exception. Especially at home in thin air.
Matt Breida RB, 49ers, at Chargers
(FD $6,400/DK $5,800)
Despite loss of Jimmy Garoppolo, a banged-up Chargers D and expected heavier reliance on the ground game lends us confidence. Plus, Chargers have a tendency to play like Bad Chargers in low-leverage situations.
Michael Crabtree WR, Ravens, at Steelers
(FD $6,400/DK $5,500)
Lots of people on the John Brown train this week, but we feel good about Crabtree. He should see less Joe Haden and more Coty Sensabaugh in coverage. That is not a bad thing.
Antonio Callaway WR, Browns, at Raiders
(FD $4,500/DK $4,300)
With a mobile QB (Baker Mayfield) for whom there is little game tape from which to prepare, we can envision some busted plays. All you need to one long one from speedster Callaway.
Small Weaks
Ryan FitzpatrickAPRyan Fitzpatrick QB, Buccaneers, at Bears
(FD $7,400/DK $6,200)
It always is risky to bench a red-hot QB. Bears can apply pressure, which is often when Fitz makes mistakes. If you have a reliable option — such as Philip Rivers, Drew Brees or Matt Ryan — use them instead.
Lamar Miller RB, Texans, at Colts
(FD $6,500/DK $5,000)
Eagles ground game gobbled up big yards (142 rushing yards) against Indy last week with backup RBs. But the Texans’ O-line is nothing like the Eagles’.
Alex Collins RB, Ravens, at Steelers
(FD $6,500/DK $5,100)
He finally got the kind of workload we’ve been waiting for last week (18-68, TD). But in an expected scorefest, could yield snaps to Buck Allen. Ugh.
Corey Davis WR, Titans, vs. Eagles
(FD $5,400/DK $5,300)
As a rule, the Madman doesn’t like WRs with terrible QBs. Marcus Mariota has been dealing with an elbow issue affecting his grip, and he wasn’t very good when healthy.
Tweet of the Week
Beelzelbub just called. Wants to know if he can borrow a jacket. #BUFvsMIN#HellFreezingOver
— Drew Loftis (@NYPost_Loftis) September 23, 2018




