By this time next week, we will have seen the first set of rankings compiled by the playoff committee, but it’s already obvious that we are barely better off than we were the past 16 years and still at least another dozen years from a logical and equitable solution in determining college football’s postseason participants.
Outside of Florida State, which doesn’t play another ranked team the rest of the season, there is little point in projecting playoff teams at this point because four of the top five teams in the nation — Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Alabama and Auburn — all reside in one division and play two games against two teams in that group.
But the unprecedented cluster of one division dominance highlights the real possibility that two SEC teams could make the playoff, as well as Notre Dame, which could leave the Big Ten, Pac-12 and Big 12 champions all out in the cold of New Year’s Day, with the likelihood of at least two excluded power conferences frighteningly realistic.
What other scenario was going to play out in a sport that annually provides unmatchable excitement as an appetizer to ultimate frustration? In the exhilaration of change, the details were ignored. A playoff wasn’t a solution. The right kind of playoff was.
Instead of at least eight teams advancing out of 128 FBS teams (still just 6.25 percent of the field) — which would include all power conferences, multiple teams from a stacked conference and even a little guy, such as Marshall, which is undefeated, has no chance to advance this season and is given no chance because no power team ever will play them — a middle ground was found which kept the antiquated bowls in place and doubled the number of teams with a shot at the national title, while creating more chaos in a selection process long defined by a nauseating level of controversy.
The remaining 12 committee members should start shopping for sleeping bags now. An extended deadlock is coming. A calculator is needed and an abacus is all that’s been made available.
The revival of Alabama isn’t going to make the process any easier. Take the Tide (-17) — at Tennessee — following their 59-point demolition of Texas A&M, a win we may look back on as the reminder the conference still goes through Nick Saban.
VIRGINIA TECH (+2½) over Miami: Hurricanes freshman quarterback Brad Kaaya still is winless on the road, having thrown twice as many interceptions (six) in those three losses as in four home games.
California (+18½) over Oregon (at Santa Clara, Calif.): It’s a bad idea to enter a shootout with the Ducks, but Cal’s 10th-ranked offense (41.6 points per game) won’t allow too many possessions to pass without any points.
Texas (+10) over KANSAS ST.: The Wildcats are in control of the Big 12, but face a suddenly sneaky Longhorns squad after a huge win at Oklahoma. Texas sophomore quarterback Tyrone Swoopes is finally settling in, supporting the solid defense by helping total 74 points over the past two weeks.
NEBRASKA (-17½) over Rutgers: Remember that Rutgers win over Michigan? Well, the fun is over. After getting embarrassed at Ohio State, the Scarlet Knights’ first game against Nebraska in 94 years will make us wish it was another century before the next meeting.
Maryland (+11½) over WISCONSIN: A team with two untrustworthy quarterbacks has no business laying double-digit points in conference play.
KENTUCKY (+13½) over Miss. St.: The Bulldogs will learn in their first-ever game as the No. 1 team in the country that heavy drawbacks come with getting an opponent at its most focused.
Michigan (+17) over MICHIGAN ST.: The Wolverines have had two weeks to prepare for their in-state rival. Even Brady Hoke can get his team ready in that time.
Texas Tech (+23) over TCU: The Red Raiders’ 330 passing yards and 31 points per game should be just enough to kick down the back door.
West Virginia (+1) over OKLAHOMA ST.: The Mountaineers aren’t the same team away from Morgantown, but the nation’s leading receiver — Kevin White — should decimate a Cowboys’ secondary, which just allowed 410 yards passing against TCU.
CLEMSON (-14½) over Syracuse: The only Orange road games — at Central Michigan and Wake Forest — aren’t adequate preparation for Death Valley under the lights.
LSU (+3½) over Ole Miss: If the bad Bo Wallace is going to appear, it will come against one of the conference’s toughest defenses at one of the country’s toughest places to play.
S. Carolina (+18) over AUBURN: This will be far from the preseason expectation of two top-10 teams, but not so far that the Gamecocks should be getting more than two touchdowns.
PENN ST. (+14) over Ohio St.: A Nittany Lions bye week, one of the nation’s top run defenses and more than 100,000 fans packing Beaver Stadium in prime time equals a game much closer than it should be.
Usc (-1) over UTAH: The Trojans’ superior offensive talent is enough to pull out a low-scoring battle.
Best Bets: Clemson, S. Carolina, USC
Record: 63-54-2; Best Bets: 14-9-1
