Raise your hand if you genuinely thought the Chiefs and Raiders would be atop the AFC West at midseason. Those of you who raised your hands, you’re all liars.
No one saw this coming, certainly not the fact that both teams climbed from irrelevance into the thick of the playoff race. And not only are they the top two teams in their division, they sit atop the league in rushing offense — the Chiefs behind the duo of Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles; the Raiders primarily on the legs of Darren McFadden with some help from Michael Bush.
The question is, can this insanity continue? There’s no reason for us to believe it can’t, but which backs contribute most from a fantasy perspective could take a few turns along the way.
Jones has a slight edge in carries over Charles, and we’re not sure why. Charles easily is the more talented runner of the two — his 6.5-yard average per carry dwarfs Jones’ 4.6. Plus, Charles is much more involved in the passing game. But the Chiefs’ reluctance to give Charles more carries has some fantasy owners frustrated. We expect more of Charles down the stretch. With the trade deadline approaching, it’s a good time to make a deal to get Charles at a discount.
McFadden, on the other hand, has been phenomenal, both on the ground and in the passing game. With Bush healthy, we expect his fantasy numbers to dip, but not enough to take him out of your lineup. What scares us about McFadden is his endurance (he already has missed two games with a hamstring injury. Deal him now, when you can get top value.
BIG WEEKS
Greg Olsen, TE
Bears, at Bills
Bills have been generous to opposing tight ends. Olsen is a great bye-week option.
Shonn Greene, RB
Jets, at Lions
Expect to see plenty of Ground & Pound this week. Plenty of fantasy points to be had between Greene and LaDainian Tomlinson.
Felix Jones, RB
Cowboys, at Packers
With Jon Kitna at QB and facing a weak Packers run defense, Jones finally may look like the back you thought you were getting in the draft.
Colt McCoy, QB
Browns, vs. Patriots
Third-string rookie might get start vs. weak Patriots pass defense. Jake Delhomme and Seneca Wallace are nursing ankle injuries.
Pierre Garcon, WR
Colts, at Eagles
This isn’t dictated on matchup, we just think Garcon will be a solid starter for the rest of the season.
SMALL WEAKS
Cedric Benson, RB
Bengals, vs. Steelers
Steelers allow just 58.9 yards rushing per game. If you have available options on a busy bye week, put Benson on your bench.
Matt Schaub, QB
Texans, vs. Chargers
San Diego has the league’s toughest pass defense (176.9 yards a game). Schaub and the Texans often come up small in big games.
Jahvid Best, RB
Lions, vs. Jets
The Lions’ ground game has been feast or famine. We expect some famine this week vs. a strong Jets defense.
Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB
Bills, vs. Bears
Has been hot lately, but Bears have allowed league-low four TD pass to go with nine INTs.
Jonathan Stewart, RB
Panthers, vs. Saints
With DeAngelo Williams out, Stewart will start again. But until the Panthers prove they can throw, the Saints, like everyone else, will stack the box.
