The first quarter of the NFL season is almost over (it only took me an hour to remember the schedule is 17 games now), and the playoff picture is starting to take shape. Most of the teams pegged as contenders still look the part, but multiple surprises have also emerged in the league long defined by its parity.

Here’s a breakdown of all 32 teams, heading into Week 5:

The teams to beat

Bills (3-1): No team has looked stronger than the preseason favorite — led by MVP front-runner Josh Allen — who would be favored over any team on a neutral field. But….