
Ohio State is the value play
College football’s strongest rivalries can be billed without mentioning either side: Iron Bowl; Egg Bowl; Apple Cup; Civil War; Holy War; Border War; Backyard Brawl; Bedlam; Red River Shootout; 100 Miles of Hate; Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate.
And The Game.
At least this year, the importance of Michigan versus Ohio State equals the nickname’s obnoxiousness.
Usually, The Game is false advertising. Michigan has won one half of a national championship in the past 70 years, and has finished unranked in six of the past 10 seasons. Ohio State has three national championships in the past 16 years, and has won 13 of the past 14 meetings.
This year, Michigan’s Jim Harbaugh is finally expected to beat Ohio State’s Urban Meyer. For the first time since 2011, the Wolverines are favored over the Buckeyes, with a berth in the Big Ten title game at stake.
Though Michigan has looked dominant on both sides of the ball nearly all season, Ohio State’s defense has put its playoff hopes in jeopardy almost every week. While Michigan suffered its lone loss on the road to current No. 3 Notre Dame, Ohio State was blown out by Purdue, which is now 5-6.
Michigan quarterback Shea PattersonGetty ImagesNone of that, however, matters now. Michigan enters without a win in Columbus in 18 years, and with just one road win over a ranked team — this season, against now five-loss Michigan State — in its past 18 attempts.
In 2006, Ohio State won the battle of the nation’s top two teams in its stadium. In 2016, No. 2 Ohio State kept No. 3 Michigan out of the playoff with the help of a questionable spot, and overtime.
The next de facto Big Ten championship comes in Columbus again. And it won’t be surprising if undervalued Ohio State (+4) leaves the field with a seventh straight win in the series.
Mississippi State (-10½) over MISSISSIPPI: The Rebels’ air-only attack won’t get going against the nation’s eighth-ranked pass defense. State’s run-only offense won’t be stopped by the nation’s 113th-ranked run defense.
Texas (-15) over KANSAS: Two years ago, then-Texas coach Charlie Strong couldn’t survive a loss in Lawrence, Kan. Now, Tom Herman will go there, and put the Longhorns back in the Big 12 title game.
Houston (+7¹/₂) over MEMPHIS: Cougars defensive tackle Ed Oliver is expected to play for the first time in a month. He must really want a jacket.
IOWA (-9½) over Nebraska: The Cornhuskers have won four of their past five games, and the Hawkeyes have lost three of their past four. Momentum means nothing in Iowa City.
Oregon (-15½) over OREGON STATE: Ducks quarterback Justin Herbert has his best chance to bring his draft stock back up, facing the nation’s second-worst defense (44.8 points per game). The Beavers have gone 0-4 at home against conference foes this season, losing by nearly 25 points per game.
Central Florida (-14) over SOUTH FLORIDA: Write the Knights’ 24th straight win in ink. The Bulls opened the season with seven straight wins, facing FBS teams with a current combined record of 19-36. Since then, they have lost four straight games by double-digits, facing teams with a current combined record of 29-15.
Oklahoma (Pk) over WEST VIRGINIA: The most entertaining game of the week will be decided by its most electric player. Last season, Baker Mayfield led the Sooners to a 28-point win. This time, Kyler Murray will put Oklahoma in line for another Big 12 crown.
Washington (+2¹/₂) over WASHINGTON STATE: The disrespectful line is a hint. For as much fun as it has been listening to Mike Leach’s rambling press conferences, and watching quarterback Gardner Minshew’s Heisman Trophy campaign, Washington State still hasn’t beaten a team which is currently ranked. The Huskies’ big-game experience will give them a sixth straight win in the series.
GEORGIA (-17) over Georgia Tech: The Yellow Jackets have won the past two meetings in Athens, but the Bulldogs know the triple-option by now, having limited Tech to seven points in two of the past three years.
BOSTON COLLEGE (-7) over Syracuse: I am typing this on Tuesday afternoon. Kickoff is Saturday afternoon. You have the option to wait until then to learn if Syracuse quarterback Eric Dungey will be playing. Exercise it.
Florida (-5) over FLORIDA STATE: Last season, the Seminoles paid Louisiana-Monroe $1.35 million to reschedule an otherwise meaningless game, and reach the “postseason” in their worst season in four decades. With Florida favored in this matchup for the first time since Tim Tebow played, Florida State won’t be able to find a feeding tube this year.
Auburn (+24½) over ALABAMA: The Crimson Tide have lost to their biggest rival three times under Nick Saban, including last year’s Iron Bowl. While Alabama should cruise — and doesn’t even need to win to remain on track for the playoff — the Tigers’ underrated defense will put up a strong fight against an offense that no longer looks unstoppable.
PENN STATE (-13½) over Maryland: The Nittany Lions have failed to cover their past two games as double-digit favorites, but have beaten the Terrapins by a combined 104-17 over the past two years. Maryland missed its chance to stun Ohio State, and now will miss making a bowl, having lost three straight road games.
Illinois (+18¹/₂) over NORTHWESTERN: It definitely makes sense that the fourth-best team in the Big Ten — the one that lost to Akron at home — will play in the Big Ten championship game. Fortunately, this seven-year tradition — rather than an extra playoff round — remains alive.
Clemson coach Dabo SwinneyGetty ImagesSouth Carolina (+26) over CLEMSON: The Tigers may have the country’s best defense, allowing a touchdown in just three of their past six games. In the other blowout wins, touchdowns only came in the fourth quarter, with the game well out of reach. The Gamecocks’ 33-point per game offense is a quality backdoor candidate.
Lsu (+2) over TEXAS A&M: The 100,000 or so fans coming to Kyle Field helped make the unranked Aggies surprising favorites, but they can’t close the talent gap on the field. Since joining the SEC, Texas A&M has lost all six meetings with the Tigers.
USC (+10¹/₂) over Notre Dame: Entering last season, Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly was on the hot seat, while his USC counterpart, Clay Helton, was expected to contend for a national championship. Now, Kelly is about to lead the Fighting Irish to the playoff, while Helton could soon be canned. There’s your reminder that no one knows what’s coming next.
Byu (+13½) over UTAH: Even without their first Pac-12 title game looming next week, the Utes would have trouble against their rival. Utah has won seven straight games against the Cougars, but the past five have been decided by an average of four points.
BOISE STATE (-3) over Utah State: The books learn quickly. Two weeks ago, Vegas made the mistake of listing Boise State as a home dog for the first time in forever, and the Broncos responded with an outright win against Fresno State. Back on the blue turf, Boise State will clinch another trip to the Mountain West title game.
Best bets: Mississippi State, UCF, South Carolina
This season (best bets): 83-107-3 (14-21)
2014-17 record: 518-471-10

