THIS SYSTEM IS ALL ‘GO’
Year-in, year-out, at every racetrack across the country, one of the best handicapping angles you’ll ever find is a horse that a) showed good early speed in its last start; b) was still in contention turning for home, even if he fell back in the stretch and finished out of the money; and c) is showing a positive change for today’s race that could signal a wake-up call.
The first two requirements go hand-in-hand. By a horse with early speed, we mean one that had the lead or was within a couple of lengths of the lead for the first half-mile. This shows that the horse is fast enough to be competitive. But you don’t want a speedball who throws in the towel when he exerts himself early in a race. He should still be in the thick of the race at the top of the stretch, even if he tires in the final furlong.
The positive change for today’s race can take many forms. It can be a drop in class, a favorable switch in distance or surface, first-time Lasix, blinkers on or off, a strong recent workout, or a change to a better jockey or back to one who won with the horse before.
Any of these changes indicate the horse got the needed conditioning out of its last start and is making the necessary fine-tuning adjustments to win today.
There are several horses on today’s card at Belmont Park who fit these conditions.
FIRST RACE: River Rush made his debut at Saratoga going a mile and a sixteenth on turf for trainer Bill Mott, was two lengths back for the first two calls and just 1 3/4 lengths back at the top of the stretch, then backed up to finish 11th, with the trouble line in his past performances “clipped heels, stumbled.”
The 2-year-old colt by Strodes Creek out of a mare by champion sprinter Groovy drops from a maiden special weight to a $40,000 maiden claimer today and goes from a distance on grass to six furlongs on dirt.
SECOND RACE: Time Frame battled for the early lead last out in a non-winners of two allowance at The Meadowlands and hung tough to midstretch before finishing sixth. He goes for a $40,000 claiming tag today and gets a rider switch to Jorge “Chop Chop” Chavez.
THIRD RACE: Calimisskris set the pace in the Lady Fingers Stakes at Finger Lakes Aug. 19, still led with an eighth of a mile to run and held for second. Today the 2-year-old daughter of Crusader Sword faces state-bred maidens.
SIXTH RACE: Daddy’s Jelly Bean (also-eligible), after being bumped at the start, dueled on the front end going a mile and a sixteenth on turf last out Sept. 9 at Belmont, was just a half-length back at the furlong pole but faded to fifth. That was her first start since July 20 and just her second since Feb. 16, so she obviously needed the race.
SEVENTH RACE: Blazing Saddle, coming off a five-week layoff Sept. 3 at Saratoga, pressed the pace to the top of the stretch, then gradually gave ground to finish eighth. He should be much fitter today.
EIGHTH RACE: Ben The Man, a highly regarded 3-year-old from the Stronach Stable coming off a layoff in the Remington Park Derby, led early but tired. Today he switches riders to Chavez, drops back into the allowance ranks and backs up from two turns to six furlongs.
NINTH RACE: A Shaky Affair set the pace going a mile and an eighth at Saratoga Aug. 25 making his first start since July 19 after overcoming trouble at the start, was still fighting for the lead at the turn for home but then tired. Today he cuts back to a mile and can take them all the way.

