WHO CAN BEAT POINT GIVEN?
The Kentucky Derby has been won by a single favorite in its last 21 runnings: Fusaichi Pegasus, who last year snapped a losing streak dating back to Spectacular Bid in 1979.
Understandably, many punters look to beat the public choice in the Derby, and this past Saturday’s Big 3 Pick 3 prep races – the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland and the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park – gave them several candidates to upset Point Given, the favorite for the roses after winning the April 7 Santa Anita Derby by 5½ lengths.
For others, Saturday’s results simply affirmed Point Given’s lofty status, not only as the Derby favorite but also as solid contender to sweep the Triple Crown.
WOOD MEMORIAL: For months, trainer Bob Baffert has been saying that his late-developing colt Congaree was equal in ability to the stable’s first-stringer, Point Given, even though Congaree had never run in a stakes.
Congaree put his money where Baffert’s mouth was, winning the Wood by 23/4 lengths over 4-5 favorite Monarchos, who made a nice late run but never threatened the winner down the lane.
Congaree reminds one of Baffert’s ’98 Santa Anita Derby winner Indian Charlie, who was third in Kentucky as the 5-2 favorite. Both colts raced just four times before the Derby, and no horse in a half-century has won the roses off just four lifetime starts.
Monarchos, another lightly-raced colt, hadn’t raced in five weeks and it was no surprise he didn’t run the huge race he did when he won the Florida Derby by 4½ lengths.
BLUE GRASS: Millennium Wind, who’s been battling foot problems and a fungus infection all spring, blew them away gate-to-wire by 51/4 lengths under Laffit Pincay Jr.
The world’s all-time winningest jockey, Pincay, 54, hasn’t ridden a horse in the Derby since 1994. What a great comeback story he’s writing.
Millennium Wind, a half-brother to ’99 Derby winner Charismatic, cost $1.2 million as a yearling. He came within a length of beating Point Given in last December’s Hollywood Futurity in just his second start.
But Millennium Wind rode an inside speed bias to victory Saturday in a bizarre spectacle where several top contenders – Dollar Bill, A P Valentine, Invisible Ink, Hero’s Tribute – ran inexplicably poor races. The Blue Grass was supposed to be the most contentious of the Big 3 Pick 3 preps, and it was just the opposite.
The list of front-running Blue Grass winners who flopped in the Kentucky Derby, most at short prices, is a long one: Proud Appeal, Chief’s Crown, Holy Bull, Skip Away, Pulpit and Wild Syn, to name just a few.
ARKANSAS DERBY: Balto Star, coming off a pair of 12-length victories, including the Spiral at Turfway Park, is the “now” horse of this year’s Derby after wiring the Arkansas Derby by four lengths despite breaking from post 11. He shot to the lead under jockey Mark Guidry, got to the rail, and the rest was history.
Few horses win the Derby on the lead, however, especially in a year when, like this one, there’s plenty of early speed.

