Can the Spurs and/or the Pistons be beaten four times throughout the playoffs, much less in a single series? If so, does that mean there’s actually an opponent out there capable of bringing out the worst in them?
Those are the most overriding questions as the NBA playoffs launch this weekend in the face of criticism the first round tends to drag out longer than a Roosevelt Island tram ride.
For your safety, comfort and peace of mind, (King) David Stern, Russ Granik and Prince Charles, er, Adam Silver, have pledged all eight series shall be concisely concluded in back-to-back months.
SPURS VS. KINGS
Each team in the Western Conference is big enough to match height with San Antonio, but can any of them guard Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili off the dribble? Ron Artest has an easier time roughing up brutes, but will the whistle-blowers let him get away with body surfing on smaller players? Maybe Rick Adelman should clamp Artest on Tim Duncan – ignorantly snubbed by the vocal majority as an MVP candidate – and let the two best players settle the outcome.
Sacramento is a feared opponent. The Kings have won nine of their last 11, including a 10-point win at the Alamo, to snatch the eighth spot. Adelman shortened his rotation to seven, maybe eight, when Artest arrived. His lineup has been in playoff mode for two months. Everything is in place and everyone is in rhythm. If there’s a problem, it’s additionally amping it up, unlike the Spurs, who have no trouble raising it an octave on both ends this time of year. The Kings’ weaknesses: no shot blocker, weak interior defense and Ron will be Ron.
MOST COMPELLING MATCHUP: Parker vs. Mike Bibby. We’d all overpay to see this one up close.
AFTERTHOUGHT: Artest has decreed the Kings will win the title. Stern immediately ordered his favorite source of revenue to take two aspirin and lie down on the scorer’s table.
MAVERICKS VS. GRIZZLIES
By the time the blood-stained Spurs emerge from their contact sporting affair with the Kings, will they be too worn down to beat the winner of this conflict?
By all means, Avery Johnson’s franchise-record 60-win Mavericks should be taken seriously as championship contenders. Dirk Nowitzki is unstoppable inside and out. He has plenty of offensive assistance: The ultra versatile Josh Howard and uncanny shooting Jason Terry would be leading stars for many winning outfits. Pivotal players have willingly accepted largely thankless roles. The defense and the system are solid. Terry, Howard, Marquis Daniels and Devin Harris are capable of covering the Spurs off the dribble.
Will Dallas get suckered into playing half-court against a team that thrives in a low-scoring event? Will Howard’s fragile ankle hold up? Is Harris near full strength? How do the Mavs get Erick Dampier to play angry, at least every other game? That alone would earn Dallas a hall pass to join the Spurs in the next round.
No, it doesn’t matter if Dampier only scores a basket or two as long as he takes care of business on the boards and blocks/changes some shots.
I applaud Mike Fratello’s defense and laud Pau Gasol for becoming a near double-triple threat now that he has learned how to find the open man. But what if the Mavs don’t double him? What happens if they stay home on Shane Battier, Mike Miller, Eddie Jones, Chuckie Atkins and Bobby Jackson? Leaving them unmolested to measure confidence-building trifectas, especially in the first three quarters, would be a terrible tactical error against a franchise winless in the playoffs. Sticking to Gasol reduces their options to one. Atkins and Jackson can take their men off the dribble, but it’s not what Fratello really wants.
MOST COMPELLING MATCHUP: Mark Cuban, still complaining about the officiating at the Oscars, vs. the refs.
AFTERTHOUGHT: Bucks owner Herb Kohl is petitioning the league to rescind the draft-day trade of eight years ago that sent Nowitzki to Dallas for Tractor Traylor.
SUNS VS. LAKERS
While it’s impressive Jerry Colangelo’s Cacti have accepted Life Without Amare Stoudemire and again moved on (7-5 since Stoudemire shut it down), the team has expended an awful lot of energy to compensate for his absence. Is this where it catches up to the Suns?
Have Steve Nash and Shawn (Maid) Marion played too many minutes and run too many miles?
As for the Purple Feign, they merit big ups for winning 11 of 14 to secure the second season. Lamar Odom, Luke Walton, Kwame Brown (can he play in this series?), Smush Parker, Brian Cook and professional pest Sasha Vugaric appear looser, and less afraid of Kobe Bryant, to miss a shot and make a mistake. Then again, other than Shaquille O’Neal’s newest best friend, this is a squad that, come playoff time, is used to teeing it up vs. jumping it up. Guess who might be tempted to overdo basket-weaving?
Particularly, should Raja Bell again get under Kobe’s DNA? Or will the Bruce Bowen clone spend the series in foul trouble? The Lakers seem to suffer most when the game’s most competitive hombre gets duped into a confrontation. Kobe takes it as a challenge to his manhood. In fact, offers a Los Angeles courtside observer, “if the ball boy hands him water that’s not cold enough, he takes it as a challenge to his manhood.”
The thing about Nash, LeBron James and Duncan, who play above the squalor and the mad-hatters, is that their focus is about winning; Kobe often goes off on a personal tangent. Think about it, why else did he “allow” Phil Jackson to come back? It’s a personal challenge, not a team challenge. Raja is shrewd to pick up on it. He knows his bumping and talking bug Kobe and uses it to distract and frustrate him.
Will Kobe hotwire the Triangle Offense (average 50 points and zero assists) or short-circuit it? Your guess is as good as mine.
MOST COMPELLING MATCHUP: Mike D’Antoni vs. the Zen Hen.
AFTERTHOUGHT: Stoudemire admits he probably should have gone to medical school for a year.
CLIPPERS VS. NUGGETS
Am I making a mistake overlooking Denver? You’ve got to figure Kenyon Martin, Marcus Camby and Eduardo Najera aren’t approaching full strength/conditioning, and Earl Boykins needs time to get acclimated, time the team doesn’t have.
What about my Paper Clips? Did they peak a month ago? Or will a healthy (?) Corey Maggette (the XYZ Factor) provide enough energy and scoring to revive them? What happens if crafty George Karl concocts a scheme to neutralize Elton Brand? Will Sam Cassell try to do too much to offset Brand’s loss in production and/or validate his reputation as a big game player?
The Nuggets can win if they can fast-break; they’re No. 1 in that category. The Clippers are No. 1 in fewest fast-break points allowed. If the Clips are rolling offensively, they can beat anybody. The addition of Ruben Patterson and Reggie Evans has improved Denver’s ability to force turnovers, translating into fast breaks. Mike Dunleavy’s defensive concepts have erased big deficits at times (the Clippers held New Orleans to 16, eight and eight, in the second half, for instance). The Nuggets are renowned puny perimeter shooters, but know enough to put the ball in Carmelo Anthony’s hands in the heart of the matter for a gametying or winning shot.
MOST COMPELLING MATCHUP: Brand and Anthony vs. all human sacrifices.
AFTERTHOUGHT: Look for George Karl to be suspended one game for playing Boykins at big guard.
