WHEN you watch Kevin Brown, Mike Mussina or Curt Schilling do you think Hall of Fame?
What if you knew Brown and Mussina recently became the 21st and 22nd pitchers since 1900 to reach 200 wins with a .600 winning percentage? Of the 16 hurlers in that family that have reached Hall eligibility, only Carl Mays has not been inducted, and that might have as much to do with the fact he killed Ray Chapman with a pitch in 1920 as anything.
How about if you knew that all of pitchers with 2,500 innings, the pair that ranked 1-2 in fewest baserunners per nine innings vs. the league average (entering this season) were Mussina and Schilling. By way of comparison, Walter Johnson was third and Cy Young fourth.
“I played with two Hall of Famers in Randy [Johnson] and Pedro [Martinez] and I don’t look at myself as those kind of guys,” Schilling said.
Not yet. But the electorate (of which I am a member) is evolving in a way that should enlarge consideration for pitchers. The voters, reacting to the great offensive age, will diminish their appreciation for reaching 400 and 500 wins while elevating the importance of 200 and 250 wins. Also, more younger voters armed with a better background in sabremetric statistical analysis will join the voting ranks as older writers leave, and Brown, Mussina and Schilling are pitchers whose quantitative numbers shine.
If their careers ended now, none would make the Hall. But since Brown, Mussina and Schilling are at the Stadium today, it seemed a fine time to survey their candidacies (All comparative stats used are based on 2,500 innings pitched and against the league average, a quantitative way to more fairly judge players from different eras):
KEVIN BROWN: A long shot. He’s 39 and his total numbers have been reduced by injury. But if he can give the Yanks two or three seasons of 15-20 wins and star in the postseason, his candidacy would be enhanced. He does have five top-six Cy Young finishes and was the ace on two teams that ousted the dynastic Braves in the playoffs (the champion 1997 Marlins and 1998 Padres). He has two ERA titles, but just one 20-win season.
Brown ranks sixth all-time (between Greg Maddux and Whitey Ford) in ERA (remember, against league average). Going into yesterday’s start, he had permitted just 190 homers in 3,078 innings – the third-best mark against league average in history.
MIKE MUSSINA: Mussina has a lot of excellence, but questionable greatness. His nine seasons of between 15-19 wins without ever reaching 20 is the most ever. Eight top-six Cy finishes, but only one as high as third. He has struggled to open this year, and if those struggles endure, his candidacy is shot. But if he returns to his usual ways, at 35, he is the best current candidate (aside from Maddux) to make a run at 300 wins. He said that if he is in position (around 245 wins) when his contract expires in 2006, he would think about playing to go for 300.
He is one of the best fielders (six Gold Gloves) and control pitchers (fifth in walk-to-strikeout ratio), and is ninth in ERA.
CURT SCHILLING: Somewhat an opposite of Mussina: not as much consistency, but pockets of greatness (three top-four Cy results, an NLCS MVP, a World Series MVP, a 5-1, 1.66 mark in the postseason and the best walk-to-strikeout ratio ever). The problem is, at 37, he’s at least two good years away from even 200 wins.
