BALTIMORE – The 129th running of the Preakness tomorrow, like nearly all its predecessors, will be a great classic race dominated by favorites coming out of the Kentucky Derby with a proven record in graded stakes races.
Thus, on the historical evidence of more than a century of racing, tomorrow’s winner will almost certainly come from among the following four horses: Smarty Jones, Lion Heart, Imperialism and maybe Sir Shackleton. As a matter of fair disclosure, I hasten to add I won’t bet any of them to win unless I get a boxcar price on Sir Shackleton.
Hard to believe, but in this Preakness of 10 horses (I’m not including The Cliff’s Edge, a doubtful starter), only the four mentioned above have won a graded stakes race in two seasons of racing.
Take the other six – Borrego, Eddington, Rock Hard Ten, Song of the Sword, Water Cannon, Little Matth Man – and among them, they cannot boast a single graded stakes victory. But now they’re supposed to jump up and win the Triple Crown Classic known as the Preakness? I don’t think so, not unless the game is turned on its head. (These lists exclude The Cliff’s Edge. Even if he recovers enough to run, his abscessed foot, I believe, drops him out of contention).
But horse racing is not a science. Funny things happen in the running and sometimes the unexpected seizes the trophy. It is the upset that keeps all sports exciting. And it’s the way I bet ’em. Smarty Jones, the unbeaten Kentucky Derby hero, has been installed the 8-5 favorite for the Preakness. You’ll be lucky to get even money.
Smarty is 24-carat. A beautiful colt, fast, generous, tractable, game, consistent. He’s the horse every stable dreams of finding.
He has everything in his favor tomorrow. The best performance by far of any horse in the race, the highest speed rating, a perfect post position – and the enviable role of favorite in a race where favorites have won better than 50 percent of 129 runnings.
I expect him to win, I’ll be rooting for him to win – but now I’ll try to make the shaky case why he might get beaten tomorrow.
Smarty Jones has one glaring impediment – he has not improved one bit in his last three races, earning Beyer speed figures of 108 in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn, 107 in the Arkansas Derby and 107 in the Kentucky Derby. He’s frozen on a plateau.
After his grinding spring campaign, it’s hard to imagine he’ll suddenly vault into the 110-112 range tomorrow. He might be hard pushed to maintain the 107.
Now check his rivals. Rock Hard Ten, in only his third outing in the Santa Anita Derby, posted a 103 Beyer. An up-and-comer with vast scope to improve, he needs only to boost himself five points and he could beat Smarty.
Imperialism ran a 104 Beyer in the San Rafael, just three points behind Smarty’s Derby fig. In the Derby, Imperialism came from 17th in the 18-horse field, slogging through the slush, to get third, beaten only six lengths. If he improves, he’s a big threat.
Then there’s Borrego. He chased Smarty home in the Arkansas Derby, slowly getting to him in the last furlong. Borrego ran a 105 Beyer that day, just two points behind Smarty. He’s right in the ballpark.
In the Blue Grass, Lion Heart posted a 110 Beyer. His best Beyer beats Smarty’s best Beyer by two. Eddington is on the upswing, going from a 90 to a 97 in a rousing Wood Memorial third. He doesn’t have to improve much to win.
What happens if any of the above horses move forward off their last races and Smarty merely holds his own or, perish the thought, regresses? Then we’re going to have an upset.
I don’t expect that to happen because no speed fig or chart can measure the heart and will of a horse like Smarty Jones. Yet his trainer John Servis warned the Preakness would be the toughest race of his career.
As a contrarian, I’ll defy logic, history and common sense and bet some longshots to win, notably Borrego, Rock Hard Ten and Imperialism, and spec on Sir Shackleton and Water Cannon. Then I’ll put them under Smarty Jones and Lion Heart in the exotics.
I took this approach in the Kentucky Derby and busted. I’m hoping for better luck tomorrow.
