In the backrooms of the Vatican, the race to choose a new pope has been going on for months.
In anticipation of Pope John Paul II’s death, Holy See analysts say, church officials have been discreetly considering the question of who should be the next leader of the world’s 1 billion Catholics.
Rumors are plentiful, but there is speculation that the next pope – chosen by a consensus of cardinals – could well hail from the Third World.
Catholics across Africa – the church’s fastest-growing region – drew strength from the pope’s endurance amid their own struggle for survival on the world’s poorest continent.
Yesterday, at a packed Mass in Nairobi, the capital of Kenya, bookseller Eleanora Kazadi, 40, said the pope’s steadfastness “gives us courage to bear our own burdens.”
Despite the rumors, the Rev. Tom Reese, editor of the Catholic magazine America, recently told The Post that there is no clear front-runner.
“There are about a dozen possible candidates, but the field is wide open. No one is making any commitments,” he said of the behind-closed-doors politicking by cardinals that probably began months – if not years – ago.
“They’re not lining up their favorites,” Reese said, “but they’re watching each other very carefully.”
The Polish John Paul was the first non-Italian in more than 450 years to be named pope, and many insiders believe that if another non-Italian is picked, he could be from the developing world.
When the pope named 31 new cardinals in September 2003, he brought in men from Brazil, Ghana, Guatemala, India, Nigeria, Sudan and Vietnam.
And Central and South American cardinals – with 22 of the 120 eligible voters – have a voting bloc bigger than even Italy’s 20.
“The Italian cardinals may do all they can to get one of their own elected,” one insider said, “but they don’t have the numbers anymore.”
The political balance of the electorate suggests that the choice will be a conservative with a sensitivity to social justice – much like John Paul – since all but a handful of the 120 voting cardinals were appointed by him.
John Allen Jr., Vatican correspondent for The National Catholic Reporter, sees three likely Third World candidates.
“There is no obvious heir apparent, but some of the guys are considered to have the right stuff, the qualities that bishops most want to see in a pope,” he said.
He listed as favorites Oscar Andres Cardinal Rodriguez Maradiaga of Honduras, Claudio Cardinal Hummes of Brazil and Jorge Cardinal Bergoglio of Argentina.
THE OUTSIDERS
Dario Castrillon Hoyos
Age: 76
Country: Colombia
Extremely conservative. Known to help derelicts and confront corrupt cops and coffee barons. Said to have disguised himself as milkman to visit drug lord Pablo Escobar and force him to confess his sins. Heads influential Vatican group in charge of priests around the world. Chances boosted by the fact that Latin Americans form one of the biggest voting blocs at the next conclave.
Joseph Ratzinger
Age 78
Country: Germany
Once criticized as too old, he is now a top favorite. Outspoken academic and one of Pope John Paul’s closest advisers, Ratzinger was a German army infantryman during World War II and deserted in 1945. He was caught by U.S. troops and put in a POW camp. A fervent anti-Communist, he later taught theology at Bonn University. Has U.S. fan club and Web site. One of the last to see the pope before his death.
Ivan Dias
Age 68
Country: India
Top Asian candidate. Friend of the late Mother Teresa. Involved in controversy last year when he criticized U.S. televangelist Benny Hinn’s visit to India, saying the Palestinian-born TV star was unacceptable to most Catholics.
Nicolas de Jesus López Rodriguez
Age 68
Country: Dominican Republic
Frequent visitor to U.S. Has two television shows in home country and wants to syndicate at least one of them to the large Hispanic population in the U.S. Speaks six languages. Hosted Pope John Paul’s visit to his country in 1992. Believes the Church should work harder to evangelize.
THE TOP CONTENDERS
Those considered having a good chance to be the next pope include:
ANGELO SODANO
Age: 77 Country :Italy
An obvious choice if the cardinals decide on a safe transition;has been a long and loyal deputy to John Paul II and knows the agenda and pitfalls of the job; critics,though,say he is too ponderous
CLAUDIO HUMMES
Age: 70 Country :Brazil
Franciscan;soccer enthusiast;a moderate involved in social issues; actively opposed Brazil ‘s brutal military regime in
the 1970s
ANGELO SCOLA
Age:63 Country:Italy
Regarded by many as a rising star who has age on his side;gifted linguist who is a traditionalist on bioethics and an expert on Islam;believes the church must reconnect with modern culture
DIONIGIL TETTAMANZI
Age:68 Country:Italy
Traditionalist;a mediator;few obvious enemies among other cardinals;heads the Milan Archdiocese,the world’s largest
OSCAR ANDRES RODRIGUEZ MARADIAGA
Age:63 Country: Honduras
Telegenic;piano-playing pilot with a passion for social justice;advocate of Third World debt relief; speaks seven languages
THE OUTSIDERS
JORGE BERGOGLIO
Age :68 Country: Argentina
Jesuit;heavily involved in social issues;highest-ranked Latin American cardinal in the Vatican state;would become the first Latin American and Jesuit to hold the post
GODFRIED DANNEELS
Age: 71 Country: Belgium
Widely respected theologian;antiauthoritarian; favors greater democracy in the centralized church;progressive views on sex education and women
FRANCIS ARINZE
Age::72 Country: Nigeria
If the church were to opt for the first black pope,he is the most likely candidate; supporters say he is astute and
urbane and is a bridge between the Third World and the West
THE FAVORITES
Cardinal Tettamanzi – 5/2
Cardinal Arinze – 11/4
Cardinal Maradiaga – 4/1
Cardinal Ratzinger – 7/1
Cardinal Jaime Lucas Ortega y Alamino (Cuba) – 8/1
(Source: British bookie Paddy Power)
