With three weeks to go until the midterm elections, Republican House candidates have gained the edge over Democrats on the generic ballot, a stunning new poll has found.

The New York Times/Siena College survey released Monday found that 49% of likely voters indicated they would vote for a GOP congressional candidate compared to 45% who planned on pulling the lever for a Democrat — a three-point lead when adjusted for mathematical rounding.

The poll marked a distinct shift from the outlet’s previous survey last month, which gave Democrats a one-percentage point lead as the party seeks to hold its slim advantages in the House and Senate. Republicans need to win a net of just five seats to regain the House after four years in the minority.  Democrats currently enjoy the slightest of edges in the evenly split Senate due to Vice President Kamala Harris’ tie-breaking vote.  

The changes in the October survey were explained by a sharp increase in the percentage of voters who said inflation and a stunted stock market were the most important issues facing the US, and a large swing among independent voters, who had favored Democratic candidates by a three-point margin in September but have moved to the GOP by a margin of 10 percentage points.

The shift was most pronounced among undecided women, who supported Democratic candidates by a 14-point margin last month but are now backing Republicans by an 18-point margin.

When asked which issues facing the country were the most pressing, 26% of respondents picked the economy, 18% chose inflation, while 5% each opted for abortion and immigration. 

The 44% of likely voters who said the economy and inflation were the two most important issues planned by a two-to-one margin to vote for GOP candidates.

While 35% of Republican voters said the economy was the top issue, 17% of Democrats and 26% of independents agreed.

Only 8% of likely Democratic voters picked abortion as their top concern, despite efforts by party leaders to make the Supreme Court’s June decision overturning Roe v. Wade a key issue in November. 

Robin Ackerman, a 37-year-old Democrat from New Castle, Del., said she was vehemently opposed to the court’s decision, but her concerns about abortion rights took a back seat to her pocketbook.

“That doesn’t really have a lot to do with my decision,” she told the New York Times about the Roe v. Wade reversal. “I’m more worried about other things.”

“I’m shifting more towards Republican because I feel like they’re more geared towards business.”

Gerard Lamoureux, a 51-year-old Democrat from Newtown, Conn., was also planning to back the GOP on Nov. 8.

“It’s all about cost,” he told the paper. “The price of gas and groceries are through the roof. And I want to eat healthy, but it’s cheaper for me to go to McDonald’s and get a little meal than it is to cook dinner.”

The party in power often loses the midterm elections, but the swift reversal of polling support for the Democrats came after waning support for President Biden was buoyed over the summer by a series of legislative victories, temporary relief from record-high gas prices, and anger over the abortion ruling.

However, the president’s approval rating appears to have backslid, with just 39% of likely voters saying they “strongly” or “somewhat” approve of the job Biden is doing, compared to 58% who “strongly” or “somewhat” disapprove. 

Perhaps even more concerning for Democrats is that 64% of people polled say the country is moving in the wrong direction, compared to 24% who think it is on the right path.

Joining the 91% of Republicans and 67% of independents who say the country is on the wrong track are 35% of Democrats, while only 46% of likely voters from the president’s party believe the country is on the right track.  

“Everybody’s hurting right now,” said David Neiheisel, a 48-year-old Republican from Indianapolis. “Inflation, interest rates, the cost of gas, the cost of food, the cost of my property taxes, my utilities — I mean, everything’s gone up astronomically, and it’s going to collapse.”

Looking ahead to a potential 2024 matchup between Biden and Donald Trump, the former president has a 1 point advantage over his successor in the popular vote — 45% to 44%.

While both have overwhelming support from members of their parties, independents say they would vote for Trump by 43% to 38%. 

The New York Times/Siena College survey questioned 792 likely voters Oct. 9 through Oct. 12. The poll has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 4.1 percentage points.