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ALBANY — Gov. Kathy Hochul leads Rep. Elise Stefanik by just 14 points in a hypothetical matchup for New York governor, according to a Siena University poll released Monday.

While still a hefty lead, it’s the smallest gap between Hochul and a potential GOP challenger since then-Rep. Lee Zeldin trailed Hochul by only 11 points just three weeks before the 2021 general election. Hochul would go on to win by only 7 points.

“Stefanik can highlight that more than a year out from a potential match-up, Hochul’s lead over Stefanik is only 14 points, 45-31%, down from 23 points in June, and that Hochul doesn’t hit ‘the magic 51% mark,’” Siena poll spokesperson Steven Greenberg said.


  Gov. Kathy Hochul suffered another month of underwater poll numbers, according to the Siena University poll released Tuesday. Tomas E. Gaston Gov. Kathy Hochul suffered another month of underwater poll numbers, according to the Siena University poll released Tuesday. Tomas E. Gaston

The poll results come as Stefanik has seemingly consolidated the GOP field should she pull the trigger on a gubernatorial run following Hudson Valley Congressman Mike Lawler’s official exit from the race last month.

Stefanik also had some other bright spots from the Siena poll.

She eked out a few points over Hochul among independents, 35% to 32%. Stefanik also won among suburban voters — those from Suffolk, Nassau, Westchester, Rockland and Putnam counties — 41% to 39%. Zeldin had similarly been leading among the two constituencies in October 2021.

Asked about her struggles in the suburbs and amongst independents, Hochul waved off the poll.


  North Country Rep. Elise Stefanik trails Gov. Kathy Hochul by 14 points, according to a Siena poll released Tuesday. Bloomberg via Getty Images North Country Rep. Elise Stefanik trails Gov. Kathy Hochul by 14 points, according to a Siena poll released Tuesday. Bloomberg via Getty Images

“I’ve got my plate full. I’ll let all of you pundits figure out the polls,” the governor told reporters.

“[It’s] my 16th election. I’ve been through countless polls. And guess what, team? There’s going to be a lot more between now and next November,” Hochul added.

A fifth of those polled weren’t familiar with Hochul or Stefanik.

“Stefanik clearly has room to grow with voters — either positively or negatively. While 49% of voters say they are very or somewhat familiar with her, 46% are not very or not at all familiar with Stefanik,” Greenberg said.

“The latest Siena poll is catastrophic for Kathy Hochul as she is losing independent voters to Elise Stefanik, is below 50% on the ballot, and only 35% of voters want to re-elect Kathy Hochul as voters are increasingly looking to Elise Stefanik to deliver new leadership,” Stefanik Advisor Alex DeGrasse wrote in a statement.

Hochul once again suffered from underwater favorability ratings this quarter.

Respondents rated her 42% favorable to 44% unfavorable. The Democrat has had negative favorability ratings in nine of the last 10 Siena polls.

Asked if New York is on the right track or heading in the wrong direction, 41% said “right track” as opposed to 45% who said it was heading in the “wrong direction.”

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