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Gov. Kathy Hochul still has a solid lead over her most likely 2026 Republican challengers — despite half of New Yorkers saying they want a new governor, according to a new poll released Tuesday.

Only 37% of New York voters polled by Siena University last week said they want to reelect Hochul, with a whopping 50% saying they want someone else.

Still, Hochul holds significant leads over her likely GOP challengers – North Country Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, according to the poll.


  Gov. Kathy Hochul holds a 19-point lead over Rep. Elise Stefanik and a 25-point lead of Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman. Matthew McDermott Gov. Kathy Hochul holds a 19-point lead over Rep. Elise Stefanik and a 25-point lead of Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman. Matthew McDermott

In theoretical head-to-head matchups, Hochul beats Stefanik 49% to 30% and Blakeman 50% to 25%, according to Siena.

“Closing out 2025 – six months from the primaries and 11 months till the general election – Hochul maintains a solid 19-point lead over Stefanik, with one in five voters being undecided, and currently has a larger 25-point lead over recent entrant Blakeman,” Siena Poll Spokesperson Steven Greenberg said.

“Hochul has the support of more than three-quarters of Democrats against either Republican. Stefanik leads among Republicans 82-7%, while Blakeman’s lead is 73-7%. With independents, Hochul leads Blakeman by 10 points and Stefanik by seven points,” Greenberg added.

Stefanik would also beat Blakeman in a head-to-head primary – 48% to 17%.


  Stefanik currently beats Blakeman easily in a head-to-head matchup, per Siena’s December poll. REUTERS Stefanik currently beats Blakeman easily in a head-to-head matchup, per Siena’s December poll. REUTERS

Blakeman, who only made his entry to the race official last week as the poll was in the field, struggles with name recognition compared with Stefanik. A whopping 70% of voters polled don’t know who Blakeman is, compared with 44% unfamiliar with Stefanik.

However, the poll shows bright spots for Blakeman in critical downstate suburban counties — Suffolk, Nassau, Westchester, Rockland and Putnam. Blakeman has a positive 22-19% net favorability rating in the suburbs where Stefanik has a negative 20-27% rating in those counties.


  Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman announced he’s running for Governor last week. Michael Nigro Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman announced he’s running for Governor last week. Michael Nigro

“Four years ago I started a campaign 24 points behind against a well funded, popular incumbent in a county with 110,000 more Democrats and I won,” Blakeman said in a statement. “I was re-elected this year in a landslide. I will get the Republican nomination and I will be elected Governor.” 

On the Democratic primary side, Hochul continues to dominate her only serious primary challenger, her estranged Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado. Hochul would beat Delgado in a one-on-one matchup 56% to 13% according to Siena’s most recent poll.

Hochul also saw a rare — yet slight — positive favorability in December’s poll with 43% of respondents rating her favorably compared with 41% unfavorable. It’s one of only three monthly polls this year where Siena has shown Hochul with a positive favorability.

Still, that’s an improvement from the Siena poll a year ago, which had Hochul at 39% favorable to 49% unfavorable.

Hochul campaign spokesperson Ryan Radulovacki said in a statement the governor is “hard at work driving down New Yorkers’ costs, investing in public safety, and standing up to Trump.”

But Radulovacki said the Republican hopefuls “are focused on keeping Trump happy and helping him jack up New Yorkers’ costs with expensive tariffs – and voters are seeing that clearly,” the statement added.

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