Republicans hold just nine of New York’s 27 congressional seats and at least seven are in play this Nov. 6.

Democrats need 23 seats nationwide to control the House for the first time since 2011.

“Democrats probably need two seats out of New York. [That], I think, would be enough for the majority,” said Nathan Gonzales, editor of Inside Elections.

Pollsters believe that the 18 Democrat incumbents in New York will likely be re-elected, as will Republicans Elise Stefanik (NY-21) and Tom Reed (NY-23).

But if more than two Republicans lose in these key seven toss-up races on Election Night, that may signal a blue wave. If Dems pick up just one seat in the Empire State, control of the House “might be much closer nationally,” Gonzales said.

Rep. Claudia Tenney (R) vs. Anthony Brindisi (D)

Tenney is a former state assemblywoman who made waves within the GOP when she launched a Tea Party-backed challenge to moderate incumbent Rep. Richard Hanna in 2014. She lost in the primary, but won the seat two years later when Hanna announced his retirement. The district went to President Trump by 16 points, but Assemblyman Brindisi is giving her a challenge, says Kyle Kondik of the University of Virginia Center for Politics. In ads, Tenney rides a motorcycle and says she takes on the Washington elite; she says that Brindisi is a “radical-resistance candidate.” Meanwhile, Brindisi said, “This district has historically been represented by moderates on both sides of the aisle. People in this district want someone who is independent, who can work with both sides to get things done.”

Rep. John Faso (R) vs. Antonio Delgado (D)

Faso is fighting for a second term in a district that President Obama won, but swung hard for Trump in 2016. Faso is a longtime politician who served in the New York state Assembly from 1987 to 2002 and lost his bid for governor in 2006 to Democrat Eliot Spitzer. Delgado is a Rhodes Scholar and Harvard Law School graduate who previously was a hip-hop artist known as “A.D. the Voice.” The heated race has centered on health care, accusations of carpetbagging (Delgado grew up in Schenectady, but just last year he moved from New Jersey to a Rhinebeck home in the district) and dissecting rap lyrics.

Rep. Chris Collins (R) v. Nate McMurray (D)

Collins was a considered a shoo-in for reelection in the heavily Republican 27th district until the feds indicted him in August on insider-trading charges. A Siena poll released yesterday shows his lead has narrowed to 46-43 percent, in a district that voted for Trump by more than 24 percentage points. Collins originally said he was going to suspend his campaign, but had a change of heart. Collins was the first House member to endorse Trump during the 2016 GOP primaries. Despite his indictment, Collins is telling constituents that voting for him is synonymous with protecting Trump from potential impeachment if Democrats take over the House. “He’s not going to win,” said McMurray, town supervisor of Grand Island, NY. “I think the people of this region would be embarrassed to have a leader like that.”

Rep. John Katko (R) vs. Dana Balter (D)

The Syracuse district is a prime target for Dems because of its blue streak in voting for both Obama and Hillary Clinton. Incumbent Katko, a moderate Republican with an independent streak, is seeking to win a third term in Congress by stressing his ability to work across the aisle with Democrats. Katko was just one of 23 Republicans nationwide in 2016 to win in districts that Clinton won. Balter, an assistant visiting teaching professor at Syracuse University’s Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs, has gone after Katko for his support of the GOP tax cut. The House Majority PAC, a liberal political action committee, is targeting the district.

Rep. Dan Donovan (R) vs. Max Rose (D)

In June, Donovan crushed a spirited primary challenger in convicted felon Michael Grimm with an assist from Trump’s endorsement. But now Donovan — New York City’s sole GOP House member — is battling for his job against independent-minded Army veteran Rose, who said he won’t vote for Rep. Nancy Pelosi for House leader and has run ads bashing progressive Mayor de Blasio. Rose accuses Donovan of not helping to ease the opioid epidemic or shorten constituents’ commutes. Donovan has carved out a moderate niche in the House to represent the interests of his swing district, which voted for Trump by nearly 10 points in 2016. For instance, he voted against the tax-cut law because of the penalties New Yorkers face with the capping of state and local tax deductions. David Wasserman, House editor at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, rates the district as “likely Republican.”

Rep. Lee Zeldin (R) vs. Perry Gershon (D)

Zeldin has grown in prominence in the House GOP since his first election in 2014 by boosting his TV presence and embracing Trump’s agenda of moving the US Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem, stamping out MS-13 and withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal. Trump endorsed Zeldin for his “fantastic job” and called the Long Island Republican “tough and smart.” Businessman and first-time candidate Gershon says Zeldin’s “blind loyalty” to his party and president has made him out-of-step with the issues that matter in the district, including his vote in favor of repealing ObamaCare. The district voted narrowly for Obama in 2008 and 2012 but swung for Trump in 2016 by 12 percentage points. A New York Times and Siena College poll conducted Oct. 4-8 put Zeldin up 8 points, 49 to 41 percent.

Rep. Peter King (R) vs. Liuba Grechen Shirley (D)

Longtime Rep. King, 74, faces a surprisingly competitive race. Shirley, a 37-year-old grassroots activist, has out-fundraised King all year, prompting election forecasters to slightly lessen King’s chances for victory. King raised just $203,000 in the third quarter, compared to Shirley’s $745,000. King, who was first elected to the House in 1992, has been an important advocate in the House for Hurricane Sandy aid and 9/11 health-care benefits. He also voted against the GOP tax plan because of the cap on New Yorkers’ ability to deduct state and local taxes.

Shirley is campaigning as a champion of the working class and is one of a record number of women running for the House and Senate this election. “The presumption is King is untouchable, but the reality is he’s never had a credible challenger in recent years,” said David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report.