Republican Lee Zeldin will need to close a yawning gender gap with female voters and make inroads among Hispanics for a shot at pulling off an upset against Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul, political experts said Tuesday.
The Siena College poll released Tuesday shows Hochul with 59% support among women to 33% for Zeldin, the Long Island congressman, while they split the male vote evenly.
That’s a staggering 26 percentage point gap among female voters.
Even Republican Party operatives not affiliated with the Zeldin campaign said it’s a tough hill to climb — but not insurmountable — for the GOP candidate.
The conservative-leaning US Supreme Court did not do Republican candidates in liberal-leaning New York any favors by overturning the federal right to an abortion — turning it into a local campaign issue against Republicans — though the procedure to terminate a pregnancy is still legally protected in the Empire State and unlikely to be changed.
Hochul has 59% support among women compared to 33% for Zeldin. James Messerschmidt for NY Post“The gender gap is tough to overcome with the abortion issue,” said Rob Cole, who served as a top aide to the last Republican governor, George Pataki, who supported abortion rights. Zeldin is a pro-lifer opposed to abortion rights.
But Cole insisted “this is still a winnable race” for Zeldin.
He said that like his former boss Pataki, Zeldin can make deep inroads among Hispanic voters – who made up 11% of poll respondents – and create coalitions with ethnic and female voters, many of whom are fed up with crime.
Hochul led Zeldin by only 8 points among likely Hispanic voters — typically a reliable Democratic constituency — 48% to 41%, in the Siena survey. By comparison, Hochul is pulling nearly 80% support of black voters to 8% for Zeldin.
Hochul led Zeldin by only 8 points among likely Hispanic voters. Dennis A. Clark for NY PostThe Hispanic breakdown in support mirrors a national trend of Hispanic voters drifting away from Democrats.
“That’s a group Lee can do well with,” Cole said.
GOP operative Michael Caputo, a former Trump administration official who just started a conservative Hispanic radio program, Americano Media, agreed that the gender gap is real but Zeldin can chip away at it, particularly by targeting Latinas.
“It’s pro-abortion state and it’s tough for a pro-life candidate like Lee Zeldin to make up the difference. But it’s not impossible,” Caputo said.
“Zeldin will do better than the polls suggest with Hispanics.”
Republicans have long complained that pollsters overcount support and election turnout for Democratic candidates.
“The numbers aren’t as bad as they look. Undecideds typically break overwhelmingly for the challenger, which would put this race a lot closer than the survey suggests,” said GOP political consultant Bill O’Riley.
“Lee Zeldin is definitely in striking distance with 98 days to go, as crime and inflation continue to grow,” he said.
Michael Caputo believes that if Zeldin targets Hispanics, he can overcome the gender gap. APBut Democratic consultants said Zeldin and the Republicans are dreaming.
“When a bunch of Republican hacks on the Supreme Court take away the rights of women to control their own bodies, it’s no big surprise that women reject Republicans,” said Democratic consultant Evan Stavisky told The Post
“The reality is that the lunacy of the Supreme Court on guns and choice helps Democrats in close elections in blue states,” Stavisky added
Another Democratic consultant, Camille Rivera, said the governor just needs to focus on winning women and independents and moderate male voters “who feel that Hochul is delivering.”
Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg said Hochul benefits from the Democratic Party’s 2-to-1 enrollment advantage over Republicans in the state. He noted Democrats are overwhelmingly with Hochul, Republicans are largely behind Zeldin and independents are split.
The larger pool of Democratic voters gives Hochul the edge but “there’s still a long way to go,” Greenberg said.






