Zohran Mamdani could become mayor without a majority of support, thanks to Andrew Cuomo and Curtis Sliwa splitting the vote – and despite New Yorkers opposing his socialist policies, a poll released Tuesday found.

Mamdani had a 15-point lead over runner-up independent candidates Cuomo in the new Manhattan Institute survey, a wider margin than late-game recent polls showing a narrowing gap between the hopefuls in the unusual three-way race.

The lefty Democratic nominee had 43% support to Cuomo’s 28%, with Sliwa running a distant third with 19%, the poll of 600 likely voters surveyed last week found.

The survey by the right-leaning think tank also found that if Sliwa, the Republican nominee, were to drop out, the race would narrow considerably.

“In hypothetical head-to-head matchups, Mamdani’s lead narrows but endures,” the poll states.

“Against Cuomo, he holds a 44–40% edge—mainaining a small advantage but leaving the former governor within striking distance. Against Sliwa, by contrast, Mamdani retains a 47–33% lead, reflecting both the city’s partisan lean and Sliwa’s limited appeal.”

But the survey highlighted a “striking dissonance” between Mamdani’s electoral strength and actual support for his socialist dreams.

Mamdani’s seemingly crowd-pleasing key campaign promise of free buses was met with skepticism by voters polled.

A whopping 58% of respondents feared that making buses free could make them into rooming homeless shelters while 33% believed all fares should be eliminated, the poll found.

The outspoken progressive’s proposal to phase out the city’s Gifted and Talented program at the kindergarten level also faced a rocky reception.

Just 21% of voters thought those programs should be scaled back in early grades, compared to a resounding 64% who believe Gifted and Talented should be expanded, according to the poll.

Mamdani has argued fare evasion shouldn’t warrant a summons and, as a state lawmaker, embraced the state’s bail reform laws.

Both of those stances stand in contrast to the views of voters, the poll found.

A firm 60% of voters want paying the fare to be enforced in order to maintain order in the subway system, compared to 30% who believe turnstile jumping is mostly harmless, according to the poll. 

Another 60% of voters either strongly or somewhat support repealing bail reform laws, the poll found.

“New Yorkers favor harsher penalties for fare evasion, are eager to repeal the state’s 2019 bail reform law, have hesitations about making buses free, and support meritocracy in public education,” the poll states.

Mamdani’s proposal to raise corporate taxes to fund social programs did fare better in the poll, with 53% supporting the hike and 40% opposing it.

The poll also mirrored recent surveys showing Mamdani failing to break 50% of support from the electorate, signifying a clear break from the Democratic Party’s once-monolithic hold over New York City’s voters.

No New York City mayor has won without a clear majority since John Lindsay in 1969.

“Anything less than 50% of the vote takes away Mamdani’s claim to a mandate and, by definition, means he represents a minority of voters — and that outcome would not be surprising because the majority of voters don’t agree with him on core issues like weakening the NYPD’s authority, eliminating mayoral control, and allowing troubled homeless to stay on the streets,” a progressive Democratic operative said.

Many Democrats uneasy with Mamdani’s democratic socialist views could end up holding their noses at the ballot box, said political operative Ken Frydman.

“That’s not an easy bubble to fill in,” he said.

“But, if you’re a traditional Democratic voter like me, you’re willing this time to vote for the independent candidate, a former governor and attorney general who also happens to be the onetime political heir to the Democratic House of Cuomo.”

Many moderate Democrats and Republicans have pushed for Sliwa to drop his third-place-polling bid to clear the lane for Cuomo, who appears stronger against Mamdani. 

Sliwa has roundly rejected any suggestion he should withdraw, and experts are unsure it’ll make much of a difference.

“Were Curtis to drop out with a week to go (but remain on the ballot), I don’t see Cuomo picking up enough Curtis voters who would prefer Andrew to Zohran,” Frydman said.

Mamdani’s projected victory over Cuomo was within the poll’s 4-point margin of error – making it the second recent survey to find a two-way contest could be a statistical photo finish.

Cuomo made the case Tuesday that he’s the real Democrat, despite being an independent on the ballot.

“Because he’s on the Democratic line, (people think) he’s a Democrat,” he said.

“That’s why, in the conversation today, and one of the points I’m making clear is, he’s not a Democrat. He’s a socialist who happens to be on the Democratic line.”

– Additional reporting by Hannah Fierick