A Democrat has finally climbed to the top of the California governor’s race, according to a new poll.

Xavier Becerra beat out the crowded field in a new Emerson College poll, earning 19% support from voters and besting Republican frontrunner Steve Hilton and Democratic billionaire Tom Steyer.

Hilton and Steyer both trailed Becerra with 17% support, with Republican Sheriff Chad Bianco at 11% and Democrat Katie Porter at 10%.

“Xavier Becerra tops the crowded California primary for the first time in an Emerson poll, his support increased by nine points since mid-April, driven by now being the top choice among Democratic voters at 31%,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.

Hilton had been leading the pack since early January.

Becerra, who has been the beneficiary of disgraced former candidate Eric Swalwell’s downfall, has gotten support from Gov. Gavin Newsom’s inner circle, though the term-limited governor has so far avoided endorsing anyone in the race.

Becerra had been trailing Steyer, who has poured hundreds of millions of dollars into his campaign.

The poll comes after Becerra faced criticism over his handling of an interview with KTLA, during which he insisted it to be profile piece rather than a hard-hitting conversation. The network later released a candid interaction of Becerra talking down to a female journalist.

The primary will be held on June 2. Under California’s jungle primary system, the top two vote-getters in June advance to the November general election.

“The highest likelihood is that it will be one Republican and one Democrat,” Mike Madrid, a GOP strategist, told the California Post, noting the path for a Democratic victory in November is “consolidating.”

“It comes down to who is moving up and by how much,” Madrid added.

The only thing that could further upend the race would be another Swalwell-like scandal catching the crowded field by surprise, he said, adding that negative portrayals of candidates like Xavier Becerra following his interview disruption and Hilton’s taco comment would have little to no impact on public perception.

“Nobody but very online people know about that or care about that. Like, that wasn’t a scandal. It wasn’t, you know, dropping an F-bomb on a staffer, or Eric Swalwell with a date rape problem,” Madrid said. “I think, just for those that are hyper-online, you are going to be looking for movement. I think there’ll probably be zero impact, especially with the two league-term line.”

Steyer is another candidate who was once considered a crowd favorite, but analysts are not too sure whether he will make it across the finish line.

“Becerra remains in the driver’s seat,” Matthew Klink, owner of Klink Campaigns, a Los Angeles-based political consulting firm, said. “Steyer’s checkbook could help him pull through to the general election, but if $150M hasn’t gotten him there already, another $50M isn’t likely to do so.”

Klink also noted that “Steyer appears to have plateaued,” despite his massive spending advantage in the race.

“Tom Steyer joins the list of other billionaire candidates who seek the governor’s office (Al Checchi and Meg Whitman),” Klink said. “He hopes to counter their failure.”

Klink added that Steyer has already poured more money into negative advertising targeting Becerra than Becerra himself has spent on his entire campaign advertising effort to date.

On the other hand, Matt Mahan has gradually gained traction, but that still might not be enough.

“Mahan is climbing but too slowly to emerge as a contender,” Klink noted.

“He has no message in a Democratic Party,” Madrid added. “One of the most perplexing things about Matt Mahan is how he convinced a bunch of billionaires to underwrite a campaign that was basically saying the Democratic Party is to blame for all these problems at a time when people are focused almost exclusively on attacking Trump.”

Gov. Gavin Newsom, who has largely stayed on the sidelines in the race to succeed him, is unlikely to endorse a candidate, Madrid said. While such an endorsement could carry significant weight in the contest, he argued Newsom’s own positioning as a potential 2028 presidential contender may limit how much influence he ultimately has over the outcome.

Madrid, who has worked on campaigns for both political parties as well as on Antonio Villaraigosa’s 2018 gubernatorial campaign, said there is “zero” chance of a Republican being elected statewide.

“There’s no evidence saying that,” he said. “It’s getting worse for Republicans. This race will look a lot like 2018, except probably worse for Republicans, because then you had a good economy.”

“It’s turning out to be remarkably predictable,” Madrid added.

Registered Democrats still make up a significantly larger share of California voters. Democrats account for 45.3% of registered voters, down from 46.2% in 2021, while Republicans have seen a modest increase from 24.1% to 25.2% over the same period.

There are 61 candidates on the ballot, with eight gaining notable recognition. Eight of the candidates are Democrats, and Madrid does not see anyone dropping out to give another contender a boost before the primary.

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