Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill holds a small but clear lead over Republican Jack Ciattarelli in their battle to become governor of New Jersey, according to a poll out this week.

Sherrill (D-NJ) has a 45%-37% edge over her GOP foe among likely voters, with 16% undecided, according to the Fairleigh Dickinson University survey released Tuesday.

The poll found support for Ciattarelli slightly softer than support for Sherrill, with 87% of Democrats saying they would “definitely” or “probably” vote for their nominee and 86% of Republicans saying the same of theirs.

“Unless something goes horribly awry, partisans are going to vote for their party’s candidate,” said FDU poll executive director Dan Cassino.

“While Republicans have been narrowing the gap, there are still more Democrats than Republicans in the state, and Ciattarelli needs to start pulling in more independents and Democrats if he wants to win.”

The survey found a plurality of independents (41%) undecided in the race, with 30% supporting Sherrill and 23% supporting Ciattarelli, and just 2% of self-described Democrats backing the GOP nominee.

Polling of the race has been sporadic, but has shown Sherrill as the favorite to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy

A Rutgers-Eagleton/SSRS survey earlier this month pegged Sherrill with a roughly 20-point lead following the June primaries.

Ciattarelli is aiming to become the first Republican to win a New Jersey gubernatorial election since Chris Christie in 2013 after he came within 2.8 percentage points of besting Murphy four years ago.

Back then, Democrats had to reckon with voter backlash to some of President Joe Biden’s policies. Now Republicans are the ones in political power in Washington, DC, changing the national dynamic that colors the race.

“There’s a reason why Ciattarelli is focusing so much on local issues, and trying not to talk about President Trump,” Cassino said. “The more nationalized this race is, the worse Ciattarelli does overall, even as it helps him a bit among Republicans.”

The poll found 81% of voters who approve of Trump’s performance say they will back Ciattarelli, while 77% who disapprove plan to back Sherrill.

“Ciattarelli is walking a fine line with Trump: He needs to consolidate Trump supporters, but do so without making the race too national, or turning off voters who don’t like what’s happening in Washington,” Cassino added.

“For Sherrill, on the other hand, there’s no downside to bashing Trump as much as she likes.”

The FDU poll sampled 806 likely voters by phone July 17–23 with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.