Democrats’ longtime advantage over Republicans among two core constituencies — blacks and Hispanics — has eroded in recent months, according to new polling data out Wednesday.
Last year, 66% of black adults identified as Democrats or Democrat leaners while 19% said they were Republicans or Republican leaners, per the Gallup survey.
The 47-percentage-point spread is the lowest in at least 25 years — and down 19 percentage points from 2020, when 77% of black adults identified as Democrats and just 11% identified as Republicans.
A similar trend can be seen among Hispanics, with 47% calling themselves Democrats and 35% identifying as Republican.
That 12-point difference is a stark decline from 2021, when 57% of Hispanics identified as Democrat and 26% said they were Republican, a difference of 31 percentage points.
Meanwhile, Republicans have enjoyed a double-digit lead in identification among white voters in every year since 2013. In 2023, 54% of whites identified as Republicans or GOP leaners while 38% identified as Democrats or Democrat leaners.
The polling suggests a significant political realignment may be slowly taking shape. Universal Images Group via Getty ImagesThe GOP also enjoys a pronounced advantage among male voters, 52% of whom identified as Republicans or Republican leaners while 37% cast their lot with the Democrats.
The liberal party enjoyed a smaller advantage among women (49% to 40%), down from the 17-point edge (54% to 37%) Democrats had in 2021.
Among all US adults, 45% identify as Republicans while 43% identify as Democrats, a reversal from 2020 when 48% of Americans said they were Democrats and 43% identified as Republicans.
Democrats still have a massive advantage with both black and Hispanic voters. AFP via Getty Images
President Biden is seeking to rebuild the coalition that led him to victory in 2020. APDemocrats do still enjoy big leads among adults with a postgraduate degree (29 percentage points), city dwellers (25 percentage points), and those who don’t identify themselves with any religion (30 percentage points).
Republicans, meanwhile, have massive edges among weekly churchgoers (26 percentage points) rural voters (25 percentage points), Protestant or non-Catholic Christians (19 percentage points), and Southerners (14 percentage points).
The Gallup survey sampled 12,145 adults across the country throughout 2023 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 1 percentage point.
Among subgroups, the poll had a margin of error generally ranging between plus or minus 2 and 4 percentage points.
EDITOR’S NOTE: A previous version of this story gave the incorrect percentage of black adults who identified as Republican in 2020. It was 11%, not 19%.
