Longtime GOP operatives were divided Friday about whether Donald Trump’s guilty verdict in the Manhattan hush money trial will impact his chances at winning the handful of key states that will settle the 2024 election.

Former George W. Bush campaign strategist Karl Rove argued before the jury decision was announced Thursday that a guilty verdict could cost the 45th president states like Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania — where polls show the former president either narrowly beating President Biden or a virtual tie.

Rove cited RealClearPolitics polling averages showing Trump ahead by 2 percentage points in Michigan, 3 percentage points in Pennsylvania and 0.1% in Wisconsin — along with an NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist survey released Thursday showing 11% of independents across the country saying a guilty verdict would make them less likely to support the presumptive Republican nominee.

“So in a close race, like we’re likely to have, having 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11% of the electorate less likely to vote for you is a problem,” Rove said on Fox News.

A source close to the Republican National Committee agreed, telling The Post: “Nobody actually knows but any movement of a few thousand voters in any one of those states could have huge ramifications, given how close everything was in 2020.”

But those close to the Trump campaign disagreed with Rove’s assessment.

“RINO Rove is wrong, as usual,” a rep said, while an operative working for the former president’s re-election added: “Karl Rove has hated Trump pretty openly for a while now. He clearly has an ax to grind.”

“Voters are going to vote based on the economy and the open border, not alleged bookkeeping errors from 2017,” this person added. “The fundamentals of the race haven’t changed. Biden is in trouble.”

One GOP consultant close to Trump was less diplomatic, saying: “Karl Rove is an abject moron who hasn’t gotten a single thing correct about politics since 2004.”

Recent polling has shown Biden and Trump neck and neck in the battleground states that the Democrat won in 2020.

In Wisconsin, head-to-head polling from this month has shown Trump either edging out Biden by 1 percentage point, the two in a flat-footed tie, or Biden leading by 6 percentage points.

Pennsylvania, Biden’s birth state, has returned May polls showing Trump ahead by 2 or 3 percentage points.

And in Michigan, May polling shows Trump either ahead by2 percentage points or losing to Biden by 1.

Republican strategist Dave Wilson also disagreed with Rove’s assessment.

“I think how Trump demonstrates the brokenness of the system, and as voters begin to understand how the flawed judicial case in NYC was rigged, it will become evident that there is a problem that they’ve been feeling, but can now put their finger on and say, ‘Oh yeah … I knew something was wrong. Now I see it,'” Wilson told The Post.

The Manhattan jury found Trump guilty of all 34 counts of falsifying business records to conceal evidence of a payment to former porn star Stormy Daniels before the 2016 election to silence her about their alleged affair.

The Trump campaign said Friday it had brought in a record-breaking $34.8 million in six hours after the verdict was reached.