Fewer than half of Republican voters would support former President Donald Trump if the GOP primary were held today, according to a new poll that also shows the 45th president losing support among young voters and those with at least a college degree.
The New York Times/Siena College survey shows Trump has the backing of 49% of Republican voters, followed by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis with 25%.
Of the other named alternatives to Trump, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) received 7% support, former Vice President Mike Pence and US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley got 6% each, and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo got 2%. Of the remainder, 5% either said they didn’t know whom they would support or refused to answer the question, while 1% said they would support someone else.
Trump’s support skews toward an older, less schooled demographic. Among primary voters under 35, 64% said they would not vote for Trump, as did 65% of those with at least a college degree.
Former President Donald Trump poses with supporters wearing shirts full of his face during a rally in Anchorage, Alaska, on July 9, 2022. Justin Sullivan/Getty Images
Approximately half of Republican voters only back former President Donald Trump for the 2024 presidential election, according to a poll. New York Times / Siena College
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis previously campaigned for former President Donald Trump in 2019. Joe Raedle/Getty ImagesBy contrast, Trump leads DeSantis 53% to 21% among voters between the ages of 45 and 64 and 48% to 19% among voters 65 and older. Among voters who have attained an education level of high school or less, Trump leads the Florida governor 62% to 19%.
Trump’s hold on the Republican Party also appears to have been shaken somewhat by his role in the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot that has been the focus of a House select committee investigation.
According to the Times/Siena poll, 75% of primary voters said Trump was “just exercising his right to contest the election,” but almost one in five (19%) say the 45th president “went so far that he threatened American democracy.”
Former President Donald Trump campaigned for congressional candidate former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin and Senate candidate Kelly Tshibaka. PATRICK T. FALLON/AFP via Getty Images
More than 60 percent of Republican voters argue immigration is an “extremely important” issue in the midterm elections. New York Times / Siena College
Then-President Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis hold a COVID-19 briefing in Belleair, Florida, on July 31, 2020. SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty ImagesThe survey also showed a significant anyone-but-Trump contingent in the GOP, with 16% of Republican voters saying that if Trump won the 2024 nomination, they would either support President Biden, back a third-party candidate, would not vote at all, or were unsure what to do.
Kenneth Abreu said he has voted Republican for 30 years, but would switch to Biden in 2024 if Trump ran.
“Unlike all these other people who believe every word he says, I’m done,” Abreu, 62, of Pennsylvania, told the Times. “All the garbage he’s been talking about, the lies, Jan. 6, the whole thing — I just lost all respect for him.”
Former President Donald Trump criticizes the House select committee investigating the Jan. 6 Capitol riot during a rally in Anchorage, Alaska, on July 9, 2022. Justin Sullivan/Getty Images
Only 15 percent of registered voters ages 18-29 turn to “national television networks like CBS, NBC or ABC” for news, according to the poll. New York Times / Siena College
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has emerged as a front-runner for the GOP presidential nomination in 2024. Joe Burbank/Orlando Sentinel/Tribune News Service via Getty ImagesRichard Bechtol, a Republican from Columbus, Ohio, said he was bothered by Trump’s actions on Jan. 6 and hopes the former president doesn’t run again.
But if he does, Bechtol, 31, said he would back DeSantis or Cruz over Trump in a primary.
In a hypothetical 2024 matchup between Trump and Biden, 44% of registered voters would pick Biden while 41% would choose Trump. While Biden defenders have pointed to that poll finding as evidence the president is a viable political force, the peculiarities of the Electoral College system mean that Trump could beat the incumbent even if he runs a popular vote deficit of four or fewer percentage points.
Hundreds of people cheer for former President Donald Trump during his latest rally in Anchorage, Alaska, on July 9, 2022. PATRICK T. FALLON/AFP via Getty Images
The New York Times/Siena College Research Institute poll surveyed 849 registered voters. New York Times / Siena College
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has been a fierce opponent of public schools teaching critical race theory in the Sunshine State. Joe Raedle/Getty ImagesIf the 2024 choice comes down to Biden or Trump, Bechtol said he would go with Trump.
“Biden is getting bullied by the left wing of his party and I worry about his cognitive function as well — actually, I worry about that with Trump, too,” he said. “It’s really a lesser-of-two-evils situation for me.”
John Heaphy, 70, told the Times that Trump incited the mob that stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6 and he doesn’t understand why Republicans have shown support for his claims.
A Trump supporter holds a red hat saying “Trump Forever.” Justin Sullivan/Getty Images
About 25 percent of Republican voters backed Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis for the 2024 presidential election. Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images
Former President Donald Trump pumps his fist while greeting supporters. Justin Sullivan/Getty Images“Trump lost the election,” said Heaphy, a retired software engineer who lives in Arizona. “There are too many people out there that just don’t seem like they believe in reality anymore.”
He said he voted for Trump in 2020, but will switch to Biden in 2024.
Another poll released on Tuesday shows that most voters would rather see a completely different matchup from 2020.
When asked if Trump should run again, 61% of respondents to a Politico/Morning Consult survey said no, with 48% saying “definitely not.” Just 35% said the 45th president should make a third straight White House bid.
Meanwhile, 64% said Biden shouldn’t run for re-election, with 46% saying “definitely not” and just 29% saying he should go for a second term.
