Two-thirds of Americans say a conviction of former President Donald Trump on charges of falsifying business records will not affect their decision on Election Day, according to a new poll out Thursday.
While 67% of registered voters told the NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist survey that a guilty verdict will “make no difference” to their vote, the percentage ticked up to 69% among those who said they would “definitely” go to the polls Nov. 5 — with 15% of that cohort saying they would be more likely to vote for Trump and the same percentage saying they would be less likely to vote for him.
Among self-identified Republicans, 64% said a conviction would make no difference in their support — while 25% said that verdict would make them more likely to vote to return the 45th president to office.
More than three-quarters (76%) of registered voters and 78% of “definite” voters said Trump’s prospective acquittal would make no difference to their vote. Another 12% of the latter group said they would be more likely to vote for Trump if he was found not guilty and 8% said they would be less likely to vote for Trump if he was acquitted.
Former President Donald Trump is charged with falsifying 34 business records in an attempt to cover up a payment to adult film actress Stormy Daniels. via REUTERS
Among self-identified Republicans, 68% said a Trump acquittal wouldn’t make a difference in their vote, while 26% said they would be more likely to vote for him and just 3% said it would reduce their chances of supporting the former president.
Even 65% of self-identified Democrats said a guilty verdict would have no effect on their vote, while 27% said they would be less likely to support the former president and 7% saying a conviction would make them more likely to vote for Trump.
If Trump is acquitted, three-quarters of Democrats say they would stick with their choice, while 17% said they would be less likely to vote for Trump and 8% said they would be more likely to elect him.
The crowds wait outside the courthouse for the jury’s verdict. ZUMAPRESS.com
Trump sits in the courtroom as the jury is scheduled to continue deliberations in his criminal trial at New York Supreme Court in New York, May 30, 2024. Steven Hirsch/POOL/EPA-EFE/ShutterstockIndependents took the least issue with a guilty verdict, with 74% saying it would have no impact on their vote, 15% saying it would make them more likely to support Trump and 11% saying it would make their support less likely.
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The 45th president is accused of 34 counts of falsifying business records to conceal evidence of payments to former porn star Stormy Daniels and ex-Playboy model Karen McDougal to keep them quiet about alleged affairs with him ahead of the 2016 election.
Supporters and opponents of former President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump scuffle as they wait for a verdict in Trump’s hush money criminal trial outside Manhattan Criminal Court on May 29, 2024, in New York City. AFP via Getty ImagesThe NPR/PBS/Marist poll shows President Biden leading Trump 50% to 48% head to head among registered voters.
In a five-way race, the poll shows Trump leading Biden 44% to 40% among registered voters, followed by independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (8%), Green Party candidate Jill Stein (3%) and independent candidate Cornel West (2%).
The poll surveyed 1,261 adults May 21-23 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points for questions asked of registered voters and plus or minus 4.1 percentage points for questions asked of those who definitely plan to vote this year.
