Will the son be forced to pay for the alleged sins of the father?

Rep. Robert Menendez Jr. (D-NJ) seems to be emphasizing his first name more than his family name in campaign banners these days.

It could just be a coincidence. Or it could be that he’s in a primary dogfight against Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bhalla while his dad fights to stay out of prison.

Two years ago, Sen. Bob Menendez was an essential political boost for Rob Menendez, paving the way for junior to nab the senator’s old congressional seat with a whopping 83.6% of the primary vote in his campaign for major political office.

A Menendez dynasty in New Jersey seemed inevitable.

But the corruption case against Sen. Menendez has changed all that.

To make matters worse for the freshman congressman, Garden State Democrats appear to be broadly revolting against the party’s old guard.

Local bosses also just lost the “County Line” — a huge advantage that let them put their finger on the scale by grouping their preferred candidates together on the ballot.

“Ordinarily [this] would have been kind of a stroll in the park for Rob Menendez. But this is serious competition,” Ross Baker, professor of American politics at Rutgers University, mused to The Post.

Bhalla and Menendez Jr. will square off for the Democratic nod in New Jersey’s Eighth Congressional District on Tuesday. Democrats are widely expected to hold onto the deep-blue seat regardless of who wins the primary.

Sparse polling has given limited insight into who is actually leading, but by all indications, the election is tight.

Menendez Jr. is in no way implicated in his father’s bribery case. Sen. Menendez is facing 18 federal counts alleging that he and his second wife accepted cash, gold bars, and other lavish items in exchange for favors given to businessmen and foreign governments. He has pleaded not guilty.

Yet, in the realm of politics, the stench of his father could prove insurmountable.

“It’s a huge drag,” nonpartisan Cook Political Report analyst Erin Covey said of Sen. Menendez’s shadow on the race. “The timing of a trial obviously doesn’t help.”

Bhalla has hammered the young scion, by underscoring his ties to the embattled senator and knocking him for not denouncing his father’s alleged corruption.

“A lot of it has to do with how he got the seat,” Hoboken Councilman Phil Cohen, who has endorsed Bhalla, explained to The Post. 

“He was elected as a freshman Congressman largely because of the influence of his father, rather than service in public office and coming up through the ranks.” 

“I think part of the enthusiasm for Mayor Bhalla’s campaign is the fact that the Menendez brand is certainly not what it once was in our district.”

To counter the bad press, Menendez Jr. has focused on ethics issues, sought to minimize any connection to his more famous father, bragged about his mother (his parents split in 2005), and focused on his own record.

“My opponent wants to run against my father because he’s scared to run against me. That’s on him. I’m focused on fighting for you,” Menendez Jr. chided in a recent spot.

Some believe that the strategy could pay off and that voters might feel that attacks lumping him in with his father are unfair.

“They’re two different people. Congressman Menendez is his own person,” Laura Matos, a Democratic strategist in New Jersey told The Post. “It’s a bit of a cheap shot, I would say, to really just hone in on that and focus on it because it’s not his situation to answer for.”

Still, the politics are tricky.

“He’s obviously not going to repudiate his father,” Baker stressed.

Menendez Jr. isn’t the only one feeling the reverberations of his father’s scandal, his sister, MSNBC host Alicia Menendez has been forced to avoid commenting on it in her role.

But beyond his father’s scandal, there’s another trend playing out in New Jersey politics right now as well — the Democrat machine appears to be unraveling a bit.

It’s pretty safe to say that most of the top party powerbrokers are lining up behind Menendez Jr., not wanting him to bear the blame for his father’s alleged transgressions.

New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy (D) turned out on Sunday for him. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) and other top Democrats have also fundraised for him, according to Axios. Top party brass tends to favor incumbents.

But it’s unclear whether that will be enough. As the pitched battle for his father’s seat has shown, the Garden State’s political landscape is changing quickly. Murphy had backed his own wife in that race, but she was roundly defeated by Rep. Andy Kim (D-NJ).

Political parties, especially the Democratic Party once had a profound influence over local elections, driven by a retired ballot system, dubbed “the county line,” which was a quirk of New Jersey elections.

Local parties would endorse candidates and then their favored contenders would be aligned vertically on the ballot.

One analysis of several contests conducted in 2020, found that being on “the line” gave candidates backed by county bosses of an average of 35%.

But now “the line” is gone for the Democratic primary ballot in the Garden State, thanks to a suit championed by Kim.

(Republicans are still allowed to use it.)

“There’s really a kind of political revolution going on in New Jersey,” Baker said. “That being the case, the chances are being enhanced against Rob Menendez.”

“It’s not beyond recovery but I think it [the Democrat machine] is clearly in crisis right now.”

The 8th District race will be a test case of this new political dynamic for New Jersey Democrats.

“There’s really like no way to gauge it ahead of time,” Covey said.

Technically, the district Menendez Jr. is fighting so hard to retain has been represented by someone who is Latino for well over three decades.

District 8 is an estimated 52.5% Hispanic and it encompasses parts of Essex County, Union County, and Hudson County, which is the fastest-growing county in the New York metro area, per the most recent census.

While Hudson County’s Latino population growth slowed in comparison to other New Jersey counties, its Asian population grew by 57% between 2010, according to most recent census figures.

Menendez Jr’.’s father spotlighted his Cuban heritage after the indictment dropped, grumbling that the federal prosecutors behind the charges “simply cannot accept that a first-generation Latino American from humble beginnings could rise to be a US Senator.”

Menendez Jr. has worked to court Latinos, touting himself as “New Jersey’s only Hispanic Congressman” and enjoys the backing of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus’s Super PAC BOLD blanketing the airwaves in support of him.

“A lot of the constituents in the 8th congressional district are Latino and a very large proportion of Latinos are Cuban Americans. And so, for them, it’s basically one of their kinsmen,” Baker said.

Back when Menendez Jr. vied for the seat back in 2022, he received an endorsement from Bhalla — something the mayor now claims to regret.

“I was threatened by the Menendez machine, saying that if you don’t endorse him, Hoboken is going to get hurt,” Bhalla alleged during their debate.

Bhalla was first elected mayor in 2017 and won reelection in 2021. Baker and others say Bhalla is a “rising star” in New Jersey politics for dealing with flooding and traffic issues in the city of about 57,700.

“Hoboken is now a national leader when it comes to flood resiliency and pedestrian safety. The city of Hoboken is unusual in that it has gone seven years without a single pedestrian death,” Cohen said.

“It’s been cited by Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg as a national model.”

Meanwhile, Sen. Menendez has reportedly gathered enough signatures to potentially vie for his old Senate seat as an independent — keeping that option open — despite polls showing him deeply underwater.