While President Biden is trailing former President Donald Trump in the states most likely to decide the 2024 election, Democratic Senate candidates in those same states are more than holding their own against their Republican foes.
In five battleground states, Democrats standing for the Senate are outperforming Biden by between two and 12 percentage points, data from the nonpartisan Cook Political Report revealed Thursday.
In Arizona, Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego has 46% support in the Senate race against Republican Kari Lake’s 41%. Last week, Cook found Biden trailing Trump by a single point, 45% to 44%.
President Biden’s team is optimistic that he will win in the November election. Nathan Posner/ShutterstockIn Michigan, a state where Cook has Biden behind Trump 47% to 45% head-to-head, the outlet shows Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin up by two percentage points (44% to 42%) in the Senate race against the GOP candidate.
In Nevada, Democratic incumbent Jacky Rosen has 48% support in a hypothetical Senate matchup, seven points ahead of a generic Republican nominee (41%). In the Silver State’s presidential race, Cook has Trump leading Biden 49% to 40% head-to-head.
In Pennsylvania, Sen. Bob Casey leads Republican challenger Dave McCormick by eight percentage points (49% to 41%). On the other hand, Trump leads Biden by three percentage points in the Keystone State, 48% to 45%
Donald Trump is generally polling ahead of President Biden in battleground states. Steven Hirsch/Pool via USA TODAY NETWORKAnd in Wisconsin, the only state where Cook shows Biden even in a dead heat with Trump (45% each), Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin leads Republican Eric Hovde by 12 (49% to 37%)
“[There may be] a desire for a check on Trump. Right now, slightly more voters anticipate Trump will win the election,” said Patrick Toomey a partner at BSG, which conducted the survey for Cook along with GS Strategy Group.
If the survey results are borne out on Nov. 5, it would mark a departure from the 2016 and 2020 election cycles, when most states voted for the same party for both the Senate and the presidency.
Jacky Rosen first became a senator in 2019. Getty Images
Bob Casey is hoping to keep Pennsylvania’s Senate seat blue. APThe one exception was Maine, where Biden scooped three of the state’s four electoral votes in 2020, but Republican Sen. Susan Collins won another term.
Democrats are in a defensive crouch while trying to cling on to their upper chamber majority, forced to protect 23 seats (including three held by independents) to Republicans’ 11.
In addition to the five states highlighted by Cook, Republicans are eyeing Maryland, Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia as pickup opportunities.
