Former President Donald Trump’s conviction last week in his Manhattan hush money case has not significantly dented his standing against President Biden in three crucial states that could swing the outcome of the 2024 election, according to a new poll.
Trump, 77, leads Biden, 81, by two percentage points (47% to 45%) among likely voters in the incumbent’s birth state of Pennsylvania, according to the survey by the Florida Atlantic University Political Communication and Public Opinion Research Lab (PolCom Lab) and Mainstreet Research.
In Michigan, Biden leads Trump by a single percentage point among likely voters (47% to 46%), and in Wisconsin, Trump leads Biden by the same margin among the same group (41% to 40%).
Notably, the race in all three states is within the poll’s margin of error of plus-or-minus 3.5 percentage points.
Biden narrowly won all three states in 2020, four years after Trump pulled off the same feat in his upset of Hillary Clinton.
President Biden greets Andrea Dyess and her family during an event at a community center in Racine County, Wisconsin, May 8, 2024. REUTERS
In averages of polls collected by RealClearPolitics before the May 30 guilty verdict, Trump led Biden by 2.3 percentage points in Pennsylvania, 0.5 percentage points in Michigan and 0.1 percentage points in Wisconsin.
“Trump’s legal jeopardy may be rallying part of his base,” said Dr. Kevin Wagner, a professor of political science at FAU and a co-director of the Polcom Lab. “Most of his supporters don’t believe he’s guilty, while Biden voters overwhelmingly think he committed crimes.”
Wagner added that “18% of Republicans in our poll believe Trump is guilty. If they stay home, it could matter in November, especially in close states like these.”
Nearly half (49%) of respondents thought Trump was guilty in the New York case, with blacks (69%), Hispanics (59%) and white college educated voters (50%) most likely to hold that view.
President Biden, walking with first lady Jill Biden, waves as he walks toward Marine One at Gordons Pond State Park near Rehoboth Beach, Del., Sunday, June 2, 2024. AP
Donald Trump at a rally May 1, 2024, at Avflight Saginaw in Freeland, Michigan. Getty Images
A member of the audience cheers as President Biden speaks during a campaign rally at Girard College on May 29, 2024, in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Getty ImagesThe state results are shaken up with the addition of third-party candidates, especially independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who pulls the race toward Biden when his name is surveyed.
Kennedy puts Biden ahead of Trump by two percentage points among registered voters in Michigan and Pennsylvania (41% to 39% in both) and seven percentage points in Wisconsin (38% to 31%),
The 70-year-old independent receives 11% support in Michigan, the only state of the three where he is confirmed to be on the ballot, as well as 8% of the vote in Pennsylvania and 13% in Wisconsin.
The poll surveyed 797 adults in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin May 30-31.
