New York could be the state that clinches the GOP nomination for Donald Trump, according to state polls and some political analysts.

If Trump has more delegates than his Republican rivals after March 15 he could secure his party’s nomination by the time three-quarters of the primary contests conclude, forecasters say. The nominee will need 1,237 total delegates.

That could happen by April 19 — the date of the New York primary.

“If this race normalizes we expect things to be wrapped up around this point,” said University of Georgia politics professor Josh Putnam.

Trump, who has 17 delegates after winning New Hampshire, has several factors going for him that could result in victory.

He leads the field by 17 points in South Carolina, a state which awards its delegates to the top vote-getter in each congressional district. If Trump finishes first in each district he could take all 50 delegates.

A Trump win in South Carolina on Feb. 20 would be “huge,” says University of Virginia Center for Politics analyst Geoffrey Skelley.

“As long as the field is crowded, that’s great news for Trump,” he said.

Trump is competitive with Texas Sen. Ted Cruz in conservative states, many of which divide their delegates among the top two finishers.

“Cruz’s best states tend to be Southern states where evangelical voters are strongest and most numerous,” said Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman. “The primary calendar is front-loaded with those states.”

Polls show Trump winning or in second place in Tennessee, Alabama, and Arkansas, which would earn him dozens of delegates as long as he gets above 20 percent of the vote.

That could put Cruz at a “delegate disadvantage,” analysts say.

The terrain may become even more favorable for Trump in March.

The candidates will slog through Rust Belt and eastern states whose moderate votes carry more weight than their Southern counterparts because of their overall population.

Trump has polled well in the northeast and Midwestern states, but an establishment rival could gain ground if either Jeb Bush or John Kasich drops out in the coming weeks.

“Trump is fighting a two-front war,” Wasserman said. “So far Trump is looking good, but it would help Cruz’s cause if Trump loses delegates in blue states to Marco Rubio.”

The tide of the race could turn on March 15.

If Trump wins Ohio and Florida, which award a combined 165 delegates in winner-take-all fashion, he would be tough to catch, analysts say.

Recent polls show Trump ahead by 17 points in Florida and 5 in Ohio.

But momentum in the race can change quickly.

Some states where Trump has led his rivals are hard to gauge because they are not polled frequently.

But Trump is following the path of previous winning nominees, Putnam says.

“If you take Trump’s name away and look at the numbers themselves, it looks an awful lot like Mitt Romney,” says Putnam. “But if this gets down to a two or three-person battle then it becomes a bit more complicated.”