Former President Donald Trump seems slated to improve massively on his 2020 victory in Iowa — meaning President Biden could face even more trouble in swing states he won narrowly that year.
The Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowapoll of 632 likely voters shows Trump leading Biden 50% to 32%. The survey included third-party candidates, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 9%.
Pollster Frank Luntz says the data should not be taken lightly.
According to a recent poll, former President Donald Trump is leading President Biden in Iowa by 18 points. AP Photo/Carlos Osorio“In 2020, Trump won Iowa by +8 points,” Luntz tweeted. “Now, Iowa’s best pollster shows him up +18 in the state — which is bad news for Biden in more competitive Midwestern states, like Wisconsin and Michigan.”
He noted that pollster’s “final poll in October had Trump up +7, and he won by +8.”
The survey was conducted June 9 to 14 — after Trump’s conviction in Manhattan’s Stormy Daniels hush-money trial. His lead is well outside the 3.9% margin of error.
Notably, the poll found 76% of likely Trump voters and 81% of likely Biden voters say they’ve made up their minds and aren’t persuadable.
Trump beat Biden in Iowa by 8 percent in the 2020 election. Photo by Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images
Trump supporters at a rally in Ford Dodge, Iowa on Nov. 18, 2023. Photo by Jim Vondruska/Getty ImagesAmong all Iowa adults, Biden’s approval rating is an anemic 28%. He does worst among those under 35, with just 15% approving.
In 2016, Trump defeated former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in the general election by roughly 10%.
Iowa only carries six electoral votes, but these numbers are part of a wave of positive polling news for the Republican, who has a 0.8% average spread lead over the incumbent from May 28 to June 11, per RealClearPolitics.
