On Friday, we’ll see if President Trump can go two-for-two on the economy in the past two weeks.
Last week, the government announced the US economy grew at an impressive 4.1 percent annualized rate in the second quarter of 2018. This week, we’ll know how many new jobs were generated in July.
Wall Street is guessing 190,000 positions were created in July. That compares with 213,000 in June and an impressive 244,000 in May.
The unemployment rate is expected to dip back down to 3.9 percent from 4 percent in June. Because of the way that figure is calculated, a decline in the jobless rate could be caused either by more people finding work or by fewer people actively looking for jobs.
If you aren’t looking for work, the Bureau of Labor Statistics doesn’t consider you unemployed.
If the experts’ guesses are correct, it could propel interest rates on the 10-year bond to rise to even more than the much-watched 3 percent level.
The Federal Reserve met this week and decided not to change the rates that it controls. But that doesn’t mean the financial markets can’t, and won’t, raise rates on their own. And that’s precisely what has been happening.
Right now, it looks as though the markets are telling the Fed where rates ought to be. And the 10-year note staying over the 3 percent rate — a level that before June hadn’t been surpassed since 2014 — could have major implications for all markets.
Interest rates mostly climb because of inflation at any given moment as well as anticipated inflation in the future. But a lack of confidence in those running a government can also prompt investors to pull their money out of a country, causing the cost of money — which is what interest rates are — to go up and the value of a currency to decline.
That lack of confidence is what the Trump administration must avoid if it is to turn the little bit of economic prosperity into a longer winning streak.



