FIRES OF HATRED: Effigy-burning demonstrators call for the execution of Raymond Davis during a rally in Lahore, Pakistan. (Barcroft India)

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KARACHI, Pakistan — One cold winter afternoon early this year, a stocky 37-year-old American named Raymond Allen Davis drove his Honda Civic through the busy streets of Mozang, a commercial area in Lahore, Pakistan’s second-largest city. The streets were jammed. Stopping at a traffic light, Davis saw two armed men zooming up behind him on motorcycles. He would later tell authorities he assumed they were robbers — such brazen daytime holdups are common in cities like Lahore. Davis took out a Glock pistol and shot the men through his car window, killing them on the spot.

Davis stepped out of the car, called someone, and then took photos of the would-be bandits with his cellphone.

Another car, reportedly a Land Cruiser filled with US citizens, sped toward the scene. It hit a Pakistani man on a bicycle, Ubaid-ur-Rehman, who was killed. The Land Cruiser fled — the men vanished.

Davis also tried to escape. But traffic wardens chased him down and arrested him in Anarkali, an old market area about two miles away from the crime scene. A leaked, grainy video of his interrogation aired on local television; in it, Davis said that he was a consultant posted with the American Consulate in Lahore. He asked for his passport, which he said was probably in his car. He requested water, and was told, “No money, no water.”

That was Jan. 27. Next week, after nearly two months of failed negotiations and angry protests, Davis is expected to be charged with murder — while the US State Department claims he is entitled to diplomatic immunity and should be released. Effigies of Davis have been burned in the streets of Lahore and Islamabad, while his victims — Mohammad Faheem and Haider Faizan — are being hailed as martyrs.

While the case has gotten scant attention in the United States, in Pakistan the killings have become a scandal. Relations between Pakistan and the United States, already frayed, threaten to disintegrate over the incident. And Americans living and working here, already distrusted, have been threatened and denounced.

Through it all, however, one mystery has remained unanswered:

Who is Raymond Davis?

IN their first statement issued a day after the shootout, US offi cials said: “A staff member of the US Consulate General in Lahore was involved in an incident yesterday that regrettably resulted in the loss of life. The US Embassy is working with Pakistani authorities to determine the facts and work toward a resolution.”

But this was no ordinary “staff member.” In fact, the Guardian newspaper in London, quoting American sources, said Davis is a CIA agent.

It’s also been reported that Faheem and Faizan were operatives of the notorious Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency, Pakistan’s spy agency, who were tailing the American. Did Davis believe they were sent to kill him? Did a confrontation get out of control?

While not confirming that the two men were agents, family members have angrily denied they were robbers.

In a shocking development, Shumaila, the widow of Faheem, committed suicide 11 days after Davis shot her husband — her death televised to a horrified nation.

As she lay in the hospital, hours before she succumbed to an overdose of drugs, Shumaila addressed the cameras, demanding justice for her husband. “I want blood for blood,” Shumaila said, gasping for breath. “This is my plea to the government, the courts, the nation. I want justice.”

After her death, her body was carried through the streets on a litter; the tape has been played over and over again on Pakistan television, stirring people into a frenzy.

In the absence of facts, the local papers are rife with conspiracy theories.

Dubbed the “American Rambo” by a leading right-wing daily, Davis has been accused of being a member of Xe, formerly known as Blackwater, a private military company. Another report alleges that Davis had links to local Taliban members. Reporters speculate that there are hundreds of CIA agents in Pakistan who were granted visas without proper verification.

Conservatives have attacked Davis’ lifestyle as well, gossiping that he had “niswar,” a highly addictive form of chewing tobacco, in his car. A leading English daily reported that Davis had a “female visitor” daily who plays the board game ludo with him “to treat his depression.”

There’s also speculation about who was in the hit-and-run car — was it top American Embassy officials? Was Davis assigned to protect them? Were they spirited out of the country?

Aslam Tareen, Lahore’s police chief, said, “We have asked the US Embassy through our foreign office about the car and culprits that ran over Ubaid, but have not received a response, neither have we found the car.”

Although Davis said he was diplomat, Pakistan officials say there were no documents in his passport — or filed with the court — that would prove he has immunity. The American is currently in custody at the Kot Lakhpat jail in Lahore, and proceedings are being held under high-security protection.

Alberto Rodriguez, spokesman for the US Embassy in Islamabad, says the embassy has provided a copy of the diplomatic note that announced Davis’ immunity to the authorities. But repeated requests by the US Embassy, as well as Sen. John Kerry, who has visited Pakistan to try to negotiate Davis’ release, and even President Obama have been overlooked.

A SENIOR security official la beled the Davis incident “a disaster.” “He’s put his own government under tremendous pressure, and the ISI. This act was totally uncalled for.”

Another high-ranking official says the incident has increased mistrust between Pakistan and the United States. “The fact that the US initially did not acknowledge Davis’ CIA connection has given hard-liners in the ISI reason to argue that the US goes behind ISI’s back and conducts operations inimical to Pakistan,” the official said.

But then, he added, “hard-liners in CIA argue that the only reason the agency has to conduct its own operations in Pakistan is because ISI is not 100 percent open in sharing information on Pakistani terrorist groups with CIA.”

Religious and right-wing parties have demanded that Davis be given the death penalty, or be exchanged for Aafia Siddiqui, a jailed neuroscientist who is suspected of being part of al Qaeda and is serving an 86-year sentence for attempting to murder a US official while under interrogation in Afghanistan. Banners sponsored by religious parties in Karachi, Pakistan’s largest city, have called for an expulsion of all CIA agents in the country and “freedom from American slavery.”

Munawar Hasan, leader of the right-wing religious party Jamaat-e-Islami, says the United States has double standards. “They treat their citizens in one way, another country’s citizens in a different way,” he said. “It is shocking that even President Obama is advocating the cause of Raymond Davis, who has killed two people. We demand that this network of spies of the CIA in Pakistan be dismantled immediately. After all, does Pakistan have spies in the USA?”

Shah Mahmood Qureshi, former foreign minister of Pakistan who lost his job days after the Davis affair due to a Cabinet reshuffle, said, “On the basis of the briefings given to me by the Foreign Office and on the documents shown to me by them, I am of the view that he [Davis] doesn’t have blanket immunity that they are claiming.”

While local authorities are the ones trying Davis, almost everyone believes the Pakistan army is behind the decision not to cave in to the Americans. According to Cyril Almeida, analyst and assistant editor at Dawn, a leading local newspaper, “The Pakistan army controls the foreign policy, period.”

The militaries of both countries have had an uneasy relationship since 9/11, with different agendas in Afghanistan. With the pullout of US troops from Afghanistan in sight, Pakistan is trying to ensure that they have a final say in the war-torn country’s future.

In the months leading up to the Davis incident, the Pakistan army was privately angry at the United States for allowing the head of the ISI, Lt. Gen. Ahmed Shuja Pasha, to be named in a suit filed in New York by the victims of the terrorist attacks in Mumbai. A month later, a case was filed against the CIA’s Pakistan head — Jonathan Banks — by Karim Khan, a journalist who lost his brother and son in a drone strike in Pakistan’s tribal areas.

Banks was quickly pulled out of the country once his name was revealed.

Analysts in Pakistan believe the CIA head’s name was exposed by the army to Khan as retribution. “It’s pretty clear that [the Mumbai suit] rankled the ISI,” Almeida said. “Most spy agencies would not want their boss indicted. Even though the Americans have said that this is a private lawsuit, the Pakistanis believe the federal government has some options and hasn’t intervened.”

A senior security official agrees. “For some time, there has been a strain in the relations. The lawsuit was just part of it. It has worked to escalate matters,” the officials said. “This incident is an eye-opener, both sides have to come and sit down at the table and start afresh. Both sides cannot succeed without the other.”

THE question now is who will blink. Will Pakistan risk kill ing Davis? Will the United States punish Pakistan by withholding foreign aid or other measures if it does?

“Even pre-Davis, there was a war of words between the CIA and ISI. It was an indicator that things weren’t going well,” Almeida said. “However, the [recent] meeting between Admiral Mike Mullen and Pakistan army chief General [Ashfaq] Kayani did take place. Pakistan is a conduit for [US military] supplies, and that is the fundamental thing tying us together.”

Almeida also highlights a report suggesting that the ISI chief’s tenure is to be extended. “If relations had broken down irreparably, they would not have retained an ISI chief who can’t communicate with his American counterpart.” he said. “It’s another indicator that the situation has been pulled back from its breaking point.”

Talat Masood, a retired general of the Pakistan army and defense analyst, says the Davis incident has demonstrated the fragility of the US-Pakistan relationship. “I am reasonably confident that they will have to find a solution where Davis has to be handed over to the Americans, but they will also take steps to ensure that this type of incident doesn’t happen again,” he said.

Does Masood feel that Faheem and Faizan were intelligence agents spying on Davis?

“This is based on conjecture, not evidence, but they were both armed, and they were probably monitoring Davis’ activities. Maybe they had some knowledge that was only known to these people and he got rid of them,” he said.

In the meantime, Davis’ trial continues, as do the rumors. “I don’t think the truth about Raymond Davis or what happened that day in Lahore will ever come out,” Almeida said.

Huma Imtiaz works as a jour nalist in Pakistan and blogs at humaimtiaz.wordpress.com