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Global population is expected to reach 8 billion later this year before peaking at around 10.4 billion in six decades, according to new United Nations projections.

The new data from the UN’s “World Population Prospects 2022” released Monday on World Population Day projects the world’s 8 billionth inhabitant will be born on Nov. 15.

The global population is then expected to swell to 8.5 billion in 2030 and 9.7 billion in 2050 before peaking at 10.4 billion in the 2080s and remaining at that level until 2100.

Population across the world is currently growing at its slowest rate since 1950 — and it fell under 1% in 2020, the UN said.

More than half of the projected increase until 2050 will be concentrated in eight countries, according to the UN: the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and the United Republic of Tanzania.

“This is an occasion to celebrate our diversity, recognize our common humanity and marvel at advancements in health that have extended lifespans and dramatically reduced maternal and child mortality rates,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres said.


  India is projected to surpass China as the world’s most populous country in 2023, according to new United Nations World Population Prospects data. AP India is projected to surpass China as the world’s most populous country in 2023, according to new United Nations World Population Prospects data. AP

The new data should also serve as a “reminder” of humanity’s shared responsibility to care for one another, Guterres said.

The report also projects India to surpass China as the world’s most populous country next year. China, which is home to more than 1.4 billion people, has been the world’s most populous country for decades, according to Our World in Data.

But population growth in China has “fallen significantly” following a steep drop in its fertility rate during the 1970s and 1980s, according to the group.

In the UN’s previous release, it projected the world’s population would reach around 10.88 billion in 2100 and be still rising, according to Our World in Data.


  The global population is expected to swell to 8.5 billion in 2030 and 9.7 billion in 2050 before peaking during the 2080s amid falling growth rates at 10.4 billion and remaining at that level until 2100. UN The global population is expected to swell to 8.5 billion in 2030 and 9.7 billion in 2050 before peaking during the 2080s amid falling growth rates at 10.4 billion and remaining at that level until 2100. UN

“There are several reasons for this earlier, and lower, peak,” according to the group. “One is that the UN expects fertility rates to fall more quickly in low-income countries compared to previous revisions.”

The UN’s new model also predicts less of a rebound in fertility rates in high-income countries during the second half of the century, according to Our World in Data.

Global life expectancy, meanwhile, reached 72.8 years in 2019 — nearly nine years higher than the mark in 1990. The figure fell to 71 years in 2021 amid the worldwide coronavirus pandemic — as it led to short-term reductions in pregnancies and births in some countries, UN officials said.

That figure is projected to grow to around 77.2 years by 2050. The UN also noted that life expectancy in the world’s least developed countries lagged some seven years behind the global average last year.

“Further actions by government aimed at reducing fertility would have little impact on the pace of population growth between now and mid-century, because of the youthful age structure of today’s population,” the UN’s director of its population division of economic and social affairs, John Wilmoth, said in a statement.

“Nevertheless, the cumulative effect of lower fertility if maintained over several decades, could be a more substantial deceleration of global population growth in the second half of the century,” Wilmoth said.

The UN also estimated roughly 15 million excess deaths occurred in 2020 and 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, according to Our World in Data. That figure is on par with other published totals, including by The Economist, which estimated 17.6 million more deaths occurred during those years than during non-pandemic times.

The World Health Organization has estimated 14.9 million excess deaths occurred during that span, Our World in Data noted.

“These death figures are highly uncertain,” the group said. “But what’s clear is the number of confirmed deaths — which was just 5.4 million by the end of 2021 — captures just a fraction of the true impact of the pandemic.”

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