The United States could see its population shrink for the first time ever in 2025 as immigration numbers and birth rates have plummeted, according to a report.
Net international migration to the US in 2025 could drop to as low as negative-525,000 this year, according to an analysis by the American Enterprise Institute. With a net of 519,000 births reported by the US Census last year, the US could possibly lose 6,000 people — the first population decline in nearly 250 years of American history.
The US could see the its first population dip ever in 2025, data show. Hyperlapse Media – stock.adobe.com
The drop would mark the first population decline in nearly 250 years of American history. Charles Wenzelberg/New York PostAEI predicts that the net immigration into the US will fall off from about 2.8 million to between 115,000 and negative-525,000, which, even at the lower end, is still a 96 percent fall in international immigration, the Telegraph reported.
Even during the American Civil War — when some 700,000 Americans were killed — and during the COVID-19 pandemic, the US population has always increased every year, even if not significantly.
The population decrease has also been compounded by an apparent national “sex recession” — with America’s fertility rate projected to average just 1.6 births over the next 30 years, which is below the replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman, according to the Institute for Family Studies.
The IFS survey found that just 37 percent of men and women were having sex weekly, compared to 55 percent in 1990.
The number of immigrants in the US had already dropped for the first time in 50 years, declining by 1.4 million people in the first six months of 2025 after President Trump kicked off his second term with a major crackdown on illegal border crossings and mass deportation efforts, according to the nonpartisan Pew Research Center.
The Department of Homeland Security has said that 1.6 million illegal migrants have voluntarily left the US since Trump came back to office — contributing to the massive decline in the immigrant population.
Net international migration to the US in 2025 could drop to as low as negative 525,000 this year, according to an analysis by the AEI. ResiClubFederal immigration authorities have additionally arrested more than 359,000 illegal migrants — and deported 332,000 — during the first 200 days of the second Trump administration, DHS said last month.
Despite the sudden drop, the proportion of immigrants in the US is still at historic highs — with 15.4% of the population born in a different country.
The demographic change could have an impact on the workforce, 19% of which are immigrants, according to Pew — down from 20% at the start of the year, with a significant reduction of 750,000 immigrant workers.
Trump ran for president promising to halt illegal border crossings, which have slowed to fewer than 5,000 per month since January.
The administration has said it wants to deport one million illegal migrants by the end of the year — and the State Department announced that all 55 million immigrants with active US visas would be investigated for violations that could lead to them being deported.
The White House has additionally increased restrictions for asylum-seekers at the southern border as well as for foreign-born students studying in the US.






